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Analysing Sustainable Urban Transport and Land-Use: Modelling tools and appraisal frameworks
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics, Transport and Location Analysis.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8901-5978
2008 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other scientific)
Abstract [en]

Sustainable development and climate change is high on the agenda for most cities around the world today. Urban transport is at the heart of these changes. Increasingly, it is recognised that not only is the emission of pollutants and greenhouse gases a problem, but also the detrimental effects of congestion and social exclusion. In order to address these issues, it will be necessary for cities to make strategic long term decisions regarding the future infrastructure and land use, not only in terms of what will be built, but also on measures that affect how these systems are used.This thesis is focused on the decision support tools that we need in order to make well informed decisions. Models that predict the performance of future scenarios, and appraisal frameworks that help evaluate whether these outcomes are desirable or not. The first two papers experiment with different ways of bringing some aspects of sustainability into the appraisal frameworks used to analyse long term strategies. Paper I addresses intergenerational fairness, and Paper II focuses on the emission of greenhouse gases. Paper III develops a model, Scapes, that can help us to better understand the daily travel behaviour, through an activity based approach. By explicitly modelling space-time constraints, and travel time uncertainty in a microeconomic framework, we can get a better understanding of how people can respond to, and value, changes in the transport system. Papers IV and V describe a new integrated land use and transport model, LandScapes.The policy implications from the studies in Papers I, II, and V are that it will be very difficult for Stockholm to reduce its emissions of CO2. Particularly, predicted economic and population growth will inevitably lead to more transport. It is likely that a range of different policies will be necessary to solve that problem. At the same time, we must not forget that decreasing CO2 emissions, although important, is not the only objective Stockholm has. To cope with the increasing travel demand from a growing population, it may well be necessary to build new infrastructure as well. This thesis does not prescribe any such relative valuation between conflicting objectives. It only helps bring them to the fore.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH , 2008. , v, 28 p.
Series
Trita-TEC-PHD, ISSN 1653-4468 ; 08:003
Keyword [en]
sustainable development
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-9481ISBN: 978-91-85539-33-8 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-9480DiVA: diva2:114154
Public defence
2008-11-28, F3, KTH, Lindstedsvägen 26, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note
QC 20100817Available from: 2008-11-10 Created: 2008-11-06 Last updated: 2010-08-17Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Analysing sustainability in a land-use and transport system
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Analysing sustainability in a land-use and transport system
2008 (English)In: Journal of Transport Geography, ISSN 0966-6923, Vol. 16, no 1, 28-41 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this paper we investigate some implications of including intergenerational fairness when appraising the impact of transport policy on an urban land-use and transport system. The paper also reports on the implementation of an appraisal framework where the main elements of sustainability is taken into account. The land-use and transport system of Stockholm is modelled using the land-use model IMREL, paired with the state-of-the-art transport model SAMPERS.The intergenerational fairness is handled by modifying the normal exponential discounting of a cost–benefit analysis. We form the weighted sum of a normal cost–benefit analysis and the horizon year costs and benefits without discounting. The relative weight put on each term is governed by an intergenerational parameter, α. What we do is let the undiscounted horizon year represent the long term future, so setting α = 0 means using an ordinary exponential discount rate. α = 1 on the other hand puts all weight on the long term future, ignoring costs and benefits for the years up to the horizon year. We experiment with some values of the intergenerational parameter to see how it affects the ranking of combinations of two policy instruments.Optimisation is employed to further analyse the implications of using combinations of instruments. A problem that arises when packaging instruments into strategies is that the number of possible combinations gets large. Optimisation can be of use to find the interesting ones. Our modelling package is fairly detailed, which means long computations, and generally not suited for automated optimisation. Instead we use a response surface method, where the objective function is approximated with a quadratic function, which is fitted to model computed values of the objective function by regression.

 

Keyword
Sustainability appraisal; Land-use and transport interaction
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-9509 (URN)10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2007.02.006 (DOI)000252910300003 ()2-s2.0-36549023861 (Scopus ID)
Note
QC 20100817Available from: 2008-11-10 Created: 2008-11-10 Last updated: 2010-08-17Bibliographically approved
2. Assessment of transport policies toward future emission targets: A backcasting approach for Stockholm 2030
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Assessment of transport policies toward future emission targets: A backcasting approach for Stockholm 2030
2006 (English)In: Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management, ISSN 1464-3332, Vol. 8, no 4, 451-478 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Stockholm has set a target for greenhouse gas emissions in the year 2030, based on the United Nation's (IPCC) recommendations for an acceptable CO2 level in the atmosphere. In this study we use a backcasting framework to analyze a range of specific transport policies and fuel technology related developments with respect to the emission target. Our study employs a transport modelling system, traditionally used for forecasts, to quantify the impacts of various travel demand measures (TDM). Our study shows that the change in travel demand, induced by various travel policies, will not suffice on its own to reach the target. Even if fuel price is tripled, a substantial share of renewable fuels is required for target achievement. While our study shows that travel demand measures have a fairly small effect on CO2 emissions, it also hints at other compelling reasons for introducing such measures. Constructive strategies for the transport system would not only contribute to reduce risks with climate change. Even small reductions of transport volumes might imply large socio economic savings in traffic related costs, reduced emissions of substances with health impacts, fewer accidents, shorter travel times and higher travel time reliability. These aspects are arguably all part of a sustainable transport development.

Keyword
Mobility management; travel demand management; CO2 emission target; policy appraisal; backcasting
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-9968 (URN)10.1142/S1464333206002578 (DOI)2-s2.0-33846035238 (Scopus ID)
Note
QC 20100816Available from: 2009-02-16 Created: 2009-02-16 Last updated: 2010-09-10Bibliographically approved
3. SCAPES: A dynamic microeconomic model of activity scheduling
Open this publication in new window or tab >>SCAPES: A dynamic microeconomic model of activity scheduling
(English)Article in journal (Other academic) Submitted
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-9506 (URN)
Note
QS 20120327. Swedish Governmental Agency for Innovation SystemsAvailable from: 2008-11-10 Created: 2008-11-10 Last updated: 2012-03-27Bibliographically approved
4. LandScapes: A transport and land use model of Stockholm
Open this publication in new window or tab >>LandScapes: A transport and land use model of Stockholm
(English)Article in journal (Other academic) Submitted
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-9507 (URN)
Note
QS 20120327. Swedish Govermental Agency for Innovation SYstems, the Swedish National Road AdministrationAvailable from: 2008-11-10 Created: 2008-11-10 Last updated: 2012-03-27Bibliographically approved
5. Policy application and validation of the transport and land-use model LandScapes
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Policy application and validation of the transport and land-use model LandScapes
(English)Article in journal (Other academic) Submitted
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-9498 (URN)
Note
QS 20120327Available from: 2008-11-10 Created: 2008-11-10 Last updated: 2012-03-27Bibliographically approved

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