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Seven problems with massive simulation models for policy decision-making
Philosophy and History, KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Philosophy and History of Technology, Philosophy.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6727-8723
2017 (English)In: The Science and Art of Simulation I: Exploring - Understanding - Knowing, Springer, 2017, p. 85-101Chapter in book (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Policymakers increasingly draw on scientific methods, including simulation modeling, to justify their decisions. For these purposes, scientist and policymakers face an extensive choice of modeling strategies. This paper distinguishes two types of strategies: Massive Simulation Models (MSMs) and Abstract Simulation Models (ASMs), and discusses how to justify strategy choice with reference to the core characteristics of the respective strategies. In particular, I argue that MSMs might have more severe problems than ASMs in determining the accuracy of the model; that MSMs might have more severe problems than ASMs in dealing with inevitable uncertainty; and that MSMs might have more severe problems than ASMs with misinterpretation and misapplication due to their format. While this in no way excludes the prospect that some MSMs provide good justifications for policy decisions, my arguments caution against a general preference for MSM over ASMs for policy decision purposes.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2017. p. 85-101
National Category
Philosophy
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-218137DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-55762-5_7Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85033499588ISBN: 9783319557625 ISBN: 9783319557618 OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-218137DiVA, id: diva2:1160371
Note

QC 20171127

Available from: 2017-11-27 Created: 2017-11-27 Last updated: 2017-11-27Bibliographically approved

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Grüne-Yanoff, Till

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  • nn-NB
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  • Other locale
More languages
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