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Influences on threat assessment in a military context
2016 (English)In: Defense and Security Analysis, Vol. 32, no 3, p. 264-277Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The anchoring effect is a well-studied subject. This article connects the effect with the rules-in-use within a military intelligence institution. Particularly the rules-in-use that dictate that an analyst takes his or hers starting point from recently conducted assessments of the specific area or threat. The threat assessment as well as the written assessment were affected. The results show that officers have an aversion to lower a previous given threat assessment. This gives that to understand risk assessment we not only need to understand the methods used, we also need to understand the institutions in which they are used. This is especially relevant for military intelligence as the assessments are conducted in an environment of high uncertainty.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2016. Vol. 32, no 3, p. 264-277
Keywords [en]
intelligence, anchoring, threat assessment, rule-inuse, institutions, underrättelse, hotbedömning, praxis, institutioner
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-219273DOI: 10.1080/14751798.2016.1199118ISI: 000392657200006Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84976388618OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-219273DiVA, id: diva2:1162163
Note

QC 20171212

Available from: 2017-12-03 Created: 2017-12-03 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
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  • Other locale
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Output format
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  • asciidoc
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