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Climate target fulfilment in scenarios for a sustainable Swedish built environment beyond growth
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering.
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering.
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Urban and Regional Studies.
2018 (English)In: Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies, ISSN 0016-3287, E-ISSN 1873-6378, Vol. 98, p. 1-18Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper explores opportunities for the built environment to fulfill a far-reaching greenhouse gas (GHG) emission target in Sweden in 2050, in a context of low or no economic growth. A spreadsheet model was created, allowing for a quantitative estimation of GHG emissions and operational energy use for the built environment. Building on previous qualitative descriptions of four future scenarios, the model was run to investigate what reaching the target would require in each scenario. The results can inform policy discussions and provide insights on what strategies appear to be significant, and what they entail in terms of operational energy use in 2050 and cumulated embodied emissions from investments prior to 2050. It thus appears particularly important to decarbonate the energy mix and reduce floor areas through space sharing and optimization. When emission factors for heat and electricity are very low, the climate impact of construction materials becomes an important issue, on par with operational energy use, and strategies aimed at improving construction processes or avoiding new construction gain relevance. Extensive renovation for energy efficiency exhibits in this case a tradeoff between embodied emissions from prior investments and energy use, as decreasing one means increasing the other.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ELSEVIER SCI LTD , 2018. Vol. 98, p. 1-18
Keywords [en]
Backcasting scenarios, Greenhouse gas emissions, Built environment, Embodied emissions, Operational energy use
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-227782DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2017.12.001ISI: 000430784900001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85040655804OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-227782DiVA, id: diva2:1205356
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 259-2013-1842
Note

QC 20180514

Available from: 2018-05-14 Created: 2018-05-14 Last updated: 2018-05-14Bibliographically approved

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Francart, NicolasMalmqvist, ToveHagbert, Pernilla
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CiteExportLink to record
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