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Cross-disciplinary research in analytic decision support systems
Show others and affiliations
2006 (English)In: ITI 2006: Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Information Technology Interfaces / [ed] LuzarStiffler V, Dobric VH, New York: IEEE , 2006, 123-128 p.Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

A main problem in decision support contexts is that unguided decision making is difficult and can lead to inefficient decision processes and undesired consequences. Therefore, decision support systems (DSSs) are of prime concern to any organization and there have been numerous approaches to delivering decision support from, e.g., computational, mathematical, financial, philosophical, psychological, and sociological angles. A key observation, however, is that effective and efficient decision making is not easily achieved by using methods from one discipline only. This paper describes some efforts made by the DECIDE Research Group to approach DSS development and decision making tools in a cross-disciplinary way.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
New York: IEEE , 2006. 123-128 p.
Keyword [en]
decision support systems, decision analysis, uncertain reasoning
National Category
Information Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-7338ISI: 000239576000023ISBN: 953-7138-05-4 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-7338DiVA: diva2:12323
Conference
28th International Conference on Information Technology Interfaces Cavtat, CROATIA, JUN 19-22, 2006
Note
QC 20101117Available from: 2007-06-18 Created: 2007-06-18 Last updated: 2010-11-17Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Distribution of expected utility in second-order decision analysis
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Distribution of expected utility in second-order decision analysis
2007 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other scientific)
Abstract [la]

In explicatione consiliorum, maxima facere communis utilitas saepe trita ratio deligendi meliorem optionem est. Verum si probabilitates et utilitates incertae vel dubiae sint, communis utilitas perturbationes affert. Studium secundi ordinis effectuum in explicatione consiliorum explanat momentum structurae quaestionium consilii, insidias aliquas ad consilium capiendum indicat et facilem ad efficiendum et intellegendum rationem comparandi varia consilia suadet. Haec thesis tractat de secundi ordinis effectibus explicationis consilii, praesertim de commune utilitate et de probabilitatibus coniunctis intervallo. Voces apertae distributionum ordinis secundi in probabilitatibus intervallo conjunctis insitarum omnino et item distributionum utilitatis expectatae in parvis quaestionibus consiliorum eduntur. His distributionibus cognitis studetur res inflexionis, aliter dictu intentio fidei.

Abstract [en]

In decision analysis maximising the expected utility is an often used approach in choosing the optimal alternative. But when probabilities and utilities are vague or imprecise expected utility is fraught with complications. Studying second-order effects on decision analysis casts light on the importance of the structure of decision problems, pointing out some pitfalls in decision making and suggesting an easy to implement and easy to understand method of comparing decision alternatives. The topic of this thesis is such second-order effects of decision analysis, particularly with regards to expected utility and interval-bound probabilities. Explicit expressions for the second-order distributions inherent in interval-bound probabilities in general and likewise for distributions of expected utility for small decision problems are produced. By investigating these distributions the phenomenon of warping, that is concentration of belief, is studied.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH, 2007. vi, 20 p.
Series
Report series / DSV, ISSN 1101-8526 ; 07-006
National Category
Information Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-4442 (URN)
Presentation
2007-06-05, Sal C, KTH-Forum, entréplanet, trapphus C, Isafjordsgatan 39, Kista, 13:00
Opponent
Supervisors
Note
QC 20101118Available from: 2007-06-18 Created: 2007-06-18 Last updated: 2010-11-18Bibliographically approved

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  • apa
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Output format
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