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Some properties of aggregated distributions over expected values
Dept. of Mathematics, Natural and Computer Sciences, University of G¨avle,.
KTH, School of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), Computer and Systems Sciences, DSV.
KTH, School of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), Computer and Systems Sciences, DSV.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3039-9791
2008 (English)In: / [ed] Gelbukh A., Morales E.F., Berlin: Springer Verlag , 2008, 699-709 p.Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Software agents and humans alike face severe difficulties in making decisions in uncertain contexts. One approach is to formalise the decision situation by means of decision theory, i.e. probabilities and utilities leading to the principle of maximising the expected utility. Expected utility is here considered as a stochastic variable; under the assumption that all utility values are equally likely; and that each vector of probability values is equally likely, the probability distribution of expected utility is calculated for two, three, and four possible outcomes. The effect of these probability distributions concentrating around the middle value is explored and its significance for making decisions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Berlin: Springer Verlag , 2008. 699-709 p.
Series
Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence, ISSN 0302-9743 ; 5317
National Category
Information Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-7341DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-88636-5_66ISI: 000261873400066Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-57049112574ISBN: 978-3-540-88635-8 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-7341DiVA: diva2:12326
Conference
7th Mexican International Conference on Artificial Intelligence (MICAI 2008) Atizapan de Zaragoza, MEXICO, OCT 27-31, 2008
Note

QC 20101117

Available from: 2007-06-18 Created: 2007-06-18 Last updated: 2014-10-28Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Distribution of expected utility in second-order decision analysis
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Distribution of expected utility in second-order decision analysis
2007 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other scientific)
Abstract [la]

In explicatione consiliorum, maxima facere communis utilitas saepe trita ratio deligendi meliorem optionem est. Verum si probabilitates et utilitates incertae vel dubiae sint, communis utilitas perturbationes affert. Studium secundi ordinis effectuum in explicatione consiliorum explanat momentum structurae quaestionium consilii, insidias aliquas ad consilium capiendum indicat et facilem ad efficiendum et intellegendum rationem comparandi varia consilia suadet. Haec thesis tractat de secundi ordinis effectibus explicationis consilii, praesertim de commune utilitate et de probabilitatibus coniunctis intervallo. Voces apertae distributionum ordinis secundi in probabilitatibus intervallo conjunctis insitarum omnino et item distributionum utilitatis expectatae in parvis quaestionibus consiliorum eduntur. His distributionibus cognitis studetur res inflexionis, aliter dictu intentio fidei.

Abstract [en]

In decision analysis maximising the expected utility is an often used approach in choosing the optimal alternative. But when probabilities and utilities are vague or imprecise expected utility is fraught with complications. Studying second-order effects on decision analysis casts light on the importance of the structure of decision problems, pointing out some pitfalls in decision making and suggesting an easy to implement and easy to understand method of comparing decision alternatives. The topic of this thesis is such second-order effects of decision analysis, particularly with regards to expected utility and interval-bound probabilities. Explicit expressions for the second-order distributions inherent in interval-bound probabilities in general and likewise for distributions of expected utility for small decision problems are produced. By investigating these distributions the phenomenon of warping, that is concentration of belief, is studied.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH, 2007. vi, 20 p.
Series
Report series / DSV, ISSN 1101-8526 ; 07-006
National Category
Information Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-4442 (URN)
Presentation
2007-06-05, Sal C, KTH-Forum, entréplanet, trapphus C, Isafjordsgatan 39, Kista, 13:00
Opponent
Supervisors
Note
QC 20101118Available from: 2007-06-18 Created: 2007-06-18 Last updated: 2010-11-18Bibliographically approved

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