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The applicability of zero inflated beta distributions for stochastic modeling of PV plants' power output
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Electric Power and Energy Systems. School of Engineering, Tallinn University of Technology, Tallinn, Estonia.
2018 (English)In: 2018 19th International Scientific Conference on Electric Power Engineering, EPE 2018 - Proceedings, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2018, p. 1-6Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Uncertainty of generation is the inherent property of renewable energy sources such as photovoltaic panels. Issues such as optimal choice of equipment, energy management, and reliability of energy supply in distribution grids and microgrids should take into account this uncertainty. Usually this type of uncertainty is modeled by setting distributions of climate conditions (solar irradiation, temperature, wind speed). The specific values of power output in this case are determined by weather conditions and specifications of equipment. Such approach demands huge amount of systematic meteorological observations. This paper investigates the setting of generation output for photovoltaic plants without distributions of weather conditions. The proposed method assumes the use of hourly average generation data. The data are divided into samples. The samples are fitted by degenerated, beta or zero inflated beta distributions. Degenerated and beta distributions are presented as special cases of the more general zero inflated beta distributions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2018. p. 1-6
Keywords [en]
Beta distribution, Solar power generation, Stochastic modeling, Zero inflated beta distribution
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-233692DOI: 10.1109/EPE.2018.8395965ISI: 000439649500024Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85050351248ISBN: 9781538646113 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-233692DiVA, id: diva2:1243199
Conference
19th International Scientific Conference on Electric Power Engineering, EPE 2018, Orea Resort SantonPristavni 38Brno, Czech Republic, 16 May 2018 through 18 May 2018
Note

QC 20180830

Available from: 2018-08-30 Created: 2018-08-30 Last updated: 2018-08-30Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Output format
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