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Backcasting and econometrics for sustainable planning: information technology and individual preferences of travel
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment.
2005 (English)In: Journal of Cleaner Production, ISSN 0959-6526, Vol. 13, no 8, 841-851 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper develops a framework, building on backcasting from sustainable outcomes, or more sustainable outcomes, in combination with econometric modelling to arrive at the outcomes. To reach long-term successful objectives by introducing new transport alternatives or services, econometric modelling is suggested as a suitable tool for investigating the presumptive behaviour of key-players. In the need for deriving individual preferences, behavioural modelling can be applied as an essential "pathfinder" in the backcasting framework. The framework is discussed in relation to an office district outside Stockholm, where IT-companies provide efficient transport alternatives for their employees. The long-term vision among the leaders of the companies is to achieve an improved environmental profile, in parallel with reduced travel costs and improved working conditions for the employees, by offering alternatives to private car, taxi and long-distance travel.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2005. Vol. 13, no 8, 841-851 p.
Keyword [en]
Backcasting; Behavioural modelling; Econometrics; Forecasting; IT; Sustainability; Transportation; Costs; Environmental impact; Forecasting; Information technology; Personnel; Planning; Transportation; Sustainable development
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-7648DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2003.12.028ISI: 000227967700009Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-11044234585OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-7648DiVA: diva2:12740
Note
QC 20100816Available from: 2007-11-16 Created: 2007-11-16 Last updated: 2010-09-10Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Mobility Management and Climate Change Policies
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Mobility Management and Climate Change Policies
2007 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other scientific)
Abstract [en]

Globally, the transport system faces a paradigmatic shift where, in addition to increased local traffic problems, climate change and depletion of fossil oil reserves will foster a successive transition to renewable fuels and a need for more resource-efficient mobility management and communication alternatives. Foresighted countries, cities or companies taking the lead in adapting to these tougher conditions might well not only solve those problems, but also turn the problems into business advantages. This thesis is based on six studies that attempt to develop future strategies based on rigorous principled emission and energy efficiency targets and to modulate the impact of travel policies, technical components and behaviours in economically advantageous ways. The modelling frameworks developed throughout the thesis build on a target-orientated approach called backcasting, where the following general components are applied: (1) target description at a conceptual level i.e. the potential for sustainable energy systems, emissions, costs, behavioural patterns, preferences, etc.; (2) mapping of the current situation in relation to target description; and (3) modelling of alternative sets of policies, technologies, behaviours and economic prerequisites to arrive at target achievement. Sustainable travel strategies are analysed from two main viewpoints. The first four studies focus on company travel planning, where behavioural modelling proved to be an important tool for deriving targetorientated travel policies consistent with employee preferences. The latter two studies focus on strategies and preconditions to meet future emission targets and energy efficiency requirements at a macroscopic regional level by 2030. Backcasting’s role as a generic methodology for effective strategic planning is discussed.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH, 2007. 37 p.
Series
Trita-SOM , ISSN 1653-6126 ; 2007:05
Keyword
Strategic Sustainable Development (SSD), Backcasting, Greenhouse gas emissions, Traffic planning, Company travel planning, Mobility Management
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-4539 (URN)978-91-7178-780-4 (ISBN)
Public defence
2007-12-07, Sal Vi, KTH, Teknikringen 76, Stockholm, 09:30
Opponent
Supervisors
Note
QC 20100816Available from: 2007-11-16 Created: 2007-11-16 Last updated: 2010-09-10Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
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Output format
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