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Biofuels in the energy transition beyond peak oil: A macroscopic study of energy demand in the Stockholm transport system 2030
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics.
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics.
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Industrial Ecology.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0297-598X
2007 (English)In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 32, no 11, 2089-2098 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The objective of this study is to examine the potential for a full transition to domestically produced biofuels in the Stockholm County transport system in 2030, without exceeding the proportional share of national bioenergy assets. This target is chosen in order to test the potential of biofuel assets in Sweden, facilitating the transition to renewable fuel systems, and to display the potential of transport energy demand at macrolevel under tighter conditions on the energy market after fossil oil production has peaked. The distribution of bioenergy to the transport sector, including conversion losses and relationships to other energy sectors, is analysed explicitly. State-of-the-art traffic forecasting models, complemented with a specially designed energy quantification model, are applied to assess energy quantities needed at different vehicle efficiency levels and mobility patterns. The purpose is not to determine the most energy-efficient transport system possible, or to forecast the optimal distribution of bioenergy set aside for the transport sector in the future. Rather, we try to visualise, at a more conceptual level, energy demand as dependent on principle transport strategies, future technological developments and a type of planning that takes technological interlinkages between evolving components into strategic account. This work highlights the importance of implementing both demand and supply-side policies in order to reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in all energy sectors before making assessments of reasonable distributions of bioenergy between energy sectors and other biomass usage.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2007. Vol. 32, no 11, 2089-2098 p.
Keyword [en]
Backcasting; Energy efficiency; Renewable energy; Strategic planning; Sustainable transport; Transport policy; Biofuels; Energy efficiency; Gas emissions; Strategic planning; Backcasting; Bioenergy set; Energy demand; Full transition; Renewable energy resources; Biofuels; Energy efficiency; Gas emissions; Renewable energy resources; Strategic planning; alternative fuel; biofuel; demand analysis; demand-side management; emission; emission control; energy efficiency; energy market; energy planning; energy resource; fossil fuel; greenhouse gas; renewable resource; transport vehicle
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-7653DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2007.05.006ISI: 000250370500007Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-34548511843OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-7653DiVA: diva2:12745
Note
QC 20100816Available from: 2007-11-16 Created: 2007-11-16 Last updated: 2017-12-14Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Mobility Management and Climate Change Policies
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Mobility Management and Climate Change Policies
2007 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other scientific)
Abstract [en]

Globally, the transport system faces a paradigmatic shift where, in addition to increased local traffic problems, climate change and depletion of fossil oil reserves will foster a successive transition to renewable fuels and a need for more resource-efficient mobility management and communication alternatives. Foresighted countries, cities or companies taking the lead in adapting to these tougher conditions might well not only solve those problems, but also turn the problems into business advantages. This thesis is based on six studies that attempt to develop future strategies based on rigorous principled emission and energy efficiency targets and to modulate the impact of travel policies, technical components and behaviours in economically advantageous ways. The modelling frameworks developed throughout the thesis build on a target-orientated approach called backcasting, where the following general components are applied: (1) target description at a conceptual level i.e. the potential for sustainable energy systems, emissions, costs, behavioural patterns, preferences, etc.; (2) mapping of the current situation in relation to target description; and (3) modelling of alternative sets of policies, technologies, behaviours and economic prerequisites to arrive at target achievement. Sustainable travel strategies are analysed from two main viewpoints. The first four studies focus on company travel planning, where behavioural modelling proved to be an important tool for deriving targetorientated travel policies consistent with employee preferences. The latter two studies focus on strategies and preconditions to meet future emission targets and energy efficiency requirements at a macroscopic regional level by 2030. Backcasting’s role as a generic methodology for effective strategic planning is discussed.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH, 2007. 37 p.
Series
Trita-SOM , ISSN 1653-6126 ; 2007:05
Keyword
Strategic Sustainable Development (SSD), Backcasting, Greenhouse gas emissions, Traffic planning, Company travel planning, Mobility Management
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-4539 (URN)978-91-7178-780-4 (ISBN)
Public defence
2007-12-07, Sal Vi, KTH, Teknikringen 76, Stockholm, 09:30
Opponent
Supervisors
Note
QC 20100816Available from: 2007-11-16 Created: 2007-11-16 Last updated: 2010-09-10Bibliographically approved

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