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Forecasting Ranking in Harness Racing Using Probabilities Induced by Expected Positions
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Real Estate and Construction Management, Building and Real Estate Economics.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4454-474X
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Mathematical Statistics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6684-8088
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.).ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1489-8512
2019 (English)In: Applied Artificial Intelligence, ISSN 0883-9514, E-ISSN 1087-6545, Vol. 33, no 2, p. 171-189Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Ranked events are pivotal in many important AI-applications such as Question Answering and recommendations systems. This paper studies ranked events in the setting of harness racing. For each horse there exists a probability distribution over its possible rankings. In the paper, it is shown that a set of expected positions (and more generally, higher moments) for the horses induces this probability distribution. The main contribution of the paper is a method, which extracts this induced probability distribution from a set of expected positions. An algorithm is proposed where the extraction of the induced distribution is given by the estimated expectations. MATLAB code is provided for the methodology. This approach gives freedom to model the horses in many different ways without the restrictions imposed by for instance logistic regression. To illustrate this point, we employ a neural network and ordinary ridge regression. The method is applied to predicting the distribution of the finishing positions for horses in harness racing. It outperforms both multinomial logistic regression and the market odds. The ease of use combined with fine results from the suggested approach constitutes a relevant addition to the increasingly important field of ranked events.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC , 2019. Vol. 33, no 2, p. 171-189
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-245167DOI: 10.1080/08839514.2018.1536105ISI: 000458323800005Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85055740089OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-245167DiVA, id: diva2:1294371
Note

QC 20190307

Available from: 2019-03-07 Created: 2019-03-07 Last updated: 2019-03-07Bibliographically approved

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Armerin, FredrikHallgren, JonasKoski, Timo

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