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The impact of climate change on crop production in Uganda-An integrated systems assessment with water and energy implications
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0764-2615
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA), Development Policy and Analysis Division, 405 East 42nd Street, New York, NY 10017, United States.
Industrial Economics Inc., 2067 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02140, United States.
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2019 (English)In: Water, ISSN 2073-4441, E-ISSN 2073-4441, Vol. 11, no 9, article id 1805Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

With less than 3% of agricultural cropland under irrigation, subsistence farmers in Uganda are dependent on seasonal precipitation for crop production. The majority of crops grown in the country-especially staple food crops like Matooke (Plantains)-are sensitive to the availability of water throughout their growing period and hence vulnerable to climatic impacts. In response to these challenges, the Government has developed an ambitious irrigation master plan. However, the energy implications of implementing the plan have not been explored in detail. This article attempts to address three main issues involving the nexus between water, energy, crop production, and climate. The first one explores the impact of climate on rain-fed crop production. The second explores the irrigation crop water needs under selected climate scenarios. The third focuses on the energy implications of implementing the irrigation master plan. We attempt to answer the above questions using a water balance model for Uganda developed for this study. Our results, developed at a catchment level, indicate that on average there could be an 11% reduction and 8% increase in rain-fed crop production in the cumulatively driest and wettest climates, respectively. Furthermore, in the identified driest climate, the electricity required for pumping water is expected to increase by 12% on average compared to the base scenario.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
MDPI AG , 2019. Vol. 11, no 9, article id 1805
Keywords [en]
Climate change, Crop yield, Integrated analysis, Irrigation, Pumping electricity demand;Uganda, Catchments, Crops, Cultivation, Rain, Climate scenarios, Electricity demands, Integrated systems, Seasonal precipitations, Water and energies, Water balance models
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-262470DOI: 10.3390/w11091805ISI: 000488834400068Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85072213917OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-262470DiVA, id: diva2:1361924
Note

QC 20191017

Available from: 2019-10-17 Created: 2019-10-17 Last updated: 2020-04-09Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Impact of climate change on integrated resource systems- Insights from selected East African case studies
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Impact of climate change on integrated resource systems- Insights from selected East African case studies
2020 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

With countries revisiting their climate pledges agreed at the conference of parties (COP) in Paris, in 2015, the discussion on the impact of changes in the long-term climate on natural resources has never been more relevant. Specifically, since the 2011 Bonn conference on the nexus between resource systems, the interlinkages between energy, water and land resource systems and their climatic connections are on the radar. Despite the excitement around the nexus between the climate, land, energy and water (CLEW) systems, they are still explored in isolation in many countries. This has resulted in lopsided policies, making long-term infrastructure investments vulnerable to climatic changes. This dissertation, taking the case of the Eastern African region, adds to this discussion on resource interactions, sectoral policy decisions and climate resilience. This dissertation includes a cover essay and four appended papers. By employing regional (East Africa) and national (Uganda) case studies, quantitative methods are presented addressing three research questions, relevant to the discussion on climate change and its impact on key resource systems. This thesis combines the usage of two modelling frameworks and downscaled climatic data to emphasise the need for an integrated approach to adapt to climate change. First, the climate resilience of electricity supply expansion strategies is evaluated for the countries in the Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP). Our results highlight that the opportunity costs in planning for a slightly wetter climate than the baseline are less than adapting for a drier one. The potential of electricity interconnectors in mitigating the impact of climate change is also evaluated. The national-level study on Uganda explores the effect of climatic change on a hydropower dominated electricity sector by taking into consideration different minimum river flow regulations. This dissertation finds that even under the cumulatively wettest climate future, having flow constraints will lead to a reduction in hydropower generation. This is critical to energy planners while making important decisions on future electricity supply infrastructure. This thesis also generates datasets on climate and region-specific crop-yield variability in Uganda. For the first time, the water and energy implications of implementing the national irrigation master plan in Uganda are analysed. The results of this dissertation led to interesting conclusions on the importance of climate-model and emission-scenario selection. Finally, by using an integrated model setup—consisting of energy, water and land systems—this thesis emphasises the importance of understanding the cross-propagative effects that policies enacted on one resource system can have on other interlinked systems. Thereby, it emphasises the need for a cohesive, integrated and collaborative approach to policymaking.

Abstract [sv]

Sammanfattning

Diskussionerna kring de långsiktiga klimatförändringarna och dess effekter på naturtillgångar har aldrig varit mer relevant. Inte minst med anledning av att länder återbesöker sina klimatåtaganden från Förenta Nationernas klimatkonferens 2015. Mer specifikt så har samspelet mellan energi-, vatten- och land-resurser samt deras inverkan på klimatet stått i centrum. Trots det ökade intresset för sambandet mellan klimat-, land-, energi - och vatten-system (CLEW), behandlas de olika systemen fortfarande separat i många länder. Detta har resulterat i felprioriterad politik och investeringar i stora infrastrukturprojekt sårbara gentemot klimatförändringar. Denna avhandling bidrar till diskussionen kring resursinteraktioner, sektorpolitiska beslut och klimatsäkerhet ur ett Östafrikanskt perspektiv.

Denna avhandling innehåller en omslagssatsa och fyra medföljande artiklar. Genom att använda regionala (Östafrika) och nationella (Uganda) fallstudier, presenteras kvantitativa metoder för att besvara tre forskningsfrågor som är relevanta för diskussionen kring klimatförändringar och dess påverkan på vitala resurssystem. Denna avhandling kombinerar användandet av två modelleringsramverk och klimatdata för att understryka behovet av en integrerad strategi för att anpassa samhället till klimatförändringarna.

Först utvärderas klimatmotståndskraften för de nuvarande utvidgningsstrategierna för de Östafrikanska elförsörjningssystemen (EAPP). Våra resultat belyser att alternativkostnaderna för att planera för ett något våtare klimat än väntat är mindre än att anpassa sig till ett torrare. Möjligheten att sammankoppla olika elsystem för att på så sätt minska påverkan från klimatförändringar har också undersökts. Studien på Uganda analyserar effekterna av klimatförändringar på en kraftsektor dominerad av vattenkraft. Detta görs genom att ta hänsyn till den minimala vattenföringen vid olika tillfällen. Avhandlingen konstaterar att även under ett kontinuerligt vått klimat kommer flödesbegränsningar att leda till en minskning av elproduktion. Detta är avgörande för energiplanerare då elförsörjningens framtida infrastruktur planeras. 

 

Denna avhandling tar också fram data kring klimatscenarion, samt region- och grödospecifik variabilitet i Uganda. För första gången har konsekvenserna för vatten- och energisystemen av att genomföra den nationella bevattningsplanen i Uganda analyserats. Baserat på resultatet av denna avhandling kan intressanta slutsatser dras kring valet av klimatmodell och vikten av korrekt val av utsläppsscenario. Slutligen, med hjälp av en integrerad modelluppsättning—innehållande energi-, vatten- och land-system—belyser denna avhandling de rippel- eller korsförökande effekterna av en resurssystempolitik på andra sammanlänkade system. Genom detta betonas behovet vikten av en sammanhängande, integrerad och samarbetsinriktad strategi för beslutsfattande.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2020. p. 108
Series
TRITA-ITM-AVL ; 2020:17
Keywords
climate change; integrated assessment; Uganda; agriculture; water and energy systems; climate resilience; CLEW nexus
National Category
Energy Systems Energy Engineering
Research subject
Energy Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-271700 (URN)978-91-7873-496-2 (ISBN)
Public defence
2020-05-04, https://kth-se.zoom.us/webinar/register/1115874955885/WN_U-wBGMbpRYCtA9uUWrkzLw, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2020-04-09 Created: 2020-04-09 Last updated: 2020-04-30Bibliographically approved

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