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Probability, coherent belief and coherent belief changes
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Philosophy and History. SCAS Uppsala, Uppsala, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9934-3833
SCAS Uppsala, Uppsala, Sweden ; University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany.
2019 (English)In: Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence, ISSN 1012-2443, E-ISSN 1573-7470, Vol. 87, p. 259-291Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper is about the statics and dynamics of belief states that are represented by pairs consisting of an agent’s credences (represented by a subjective probability measure) and her categorical beliefs (represented by a set of possible worlds). Regarding the static side, we argue that the latter proposition should be coherent with respect to the probability measure and that its probability should reach a certain threshold value. On the dynamic side, we advocate Jeffrey conditionalisation as the principal mode of changing one’s belief state. This updating method fits the idea of the Lockean Thesis better than plain Bayesian conditionalisation, and it affords a flexible method for adding and withdrawing categorical beliefs. We show that it fails to satisfy the traditional principles of Inclusion and Preservation for belief revision and the principle of Recovery for belief withdrawals, as well as the Levi and Harper identities. We take this to be a problem for the latter principles rather than for the idea of coherent belief change.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Netherlands , 2019. Vol. 87, p. 259-291
Keywords [en]
Belief revision, Coherence, Jeffrey conditionalization, Lockean Thesis
National Category
Other Computer and Information Science Philosophy
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-263270DOI: 10.1007/s10472-019-09649-3Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85069828898OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-263270DiVA, id: diva2:1368035
Note

QC 20191105. QC 20200109

Available from: 2019-11-05 Created: 2019-11-05 Last updated: 2020-01-09Bibliographically approved

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Cantwell, John

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