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Autoregressive Time Series Forecasting of Computational Demand
KTH, School of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), Computer and Systems Sciences, DSV.
2007 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

We study the predictive power of autoregressive moving average models when forecasting demand in two shared computational networks, PlanetLab and Tycoon. Demand in these networks is very volatile, and predictive techniques to plan usage in advance can improve the performance obtained drastically.

Our key finding is that a random walk predictor performs best for one-step-ahead forecasts, whereas ARIMA(1,1,0) and adaptive exponential smoothing models perform better for two and three-step-ahead forecasts. A Monte Carlo bootstrap test is proposed to evaluate the continuous prediction performance of different models with arbitrary confidence and statistical significance levels. Although the prediction results differ between the Tycoon and PlanetLab networks, we observe very similar overall statistical properties, such as volatility dynamics.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2007.
Series
Technical Report
National Category
Information Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-8396OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-8396DiVA: diva2:13705
Note
QC 20100909Available from: 2008-05-09 Created: 2008-05-09 Last updated: 2010-09-09Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Statistical Methods for Computational Markets: Proportional Share Market Prediction and Admission Control
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Statistical Methods for Computational Markets: Proportional Share Market Prediction and Admission Control
2008 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other scientific)
Abstract [en]

We design, implement and evaluate statistical methods for managing uncertainty when consuming and provisioning resources in a federated computational market. To enable efficient allocation of resources in this environment, providers need to know consumers' risk preferences, and the expected future demand. The guarantee levels to offer thus depend on techniques to forecast future usage and to accurately capture and model uncertainties. Our main contribution in this thesis is threefold; first, we evaluate a set of techniques to forecast demand in computational markets; second, we design a scalable method which captures a succinct summary of usage statistics and allows consumers to express risk preferences; and finally we propose a method for providers to set resource prices and determine guarantee levels to offer. The methods employed are based on fundamental concepts in probability theory, and are thus easy to implement, as well as to analyze and evaluate. The key component of our solution is a predictor that dynamically constructs approximations of the price probability density and quantile functions for arbitrary resources in a computational market. Because highly fluctuating and skewed demand is common in these markets, it is difficult to accurately and automatically construct representations of arbitrary demand distributions. We discovered that a technique based on the Chebyshev inequality and empirical prediction bounds, which estimates worst case bounds on deviations from the mean given a variance, provided the most reliable forecasts for a set of representative high performance and shared cluster workload traces. We further show how these forecasts can help the consumers determine how much to spend given a risk preference and how providers can offer admission control services with different guarantee levels given a recent history of resource prices.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH, 2008. xii, 75 p.
Series
Report series / DSV, ISSN 1101-8526 ; 08-006
Keyword
Distributed Systems, Grid Computing, Performance Analysis, Workload Modeling, Middleware, Quality of Service, Prediction, Admission Control
National Category
Information Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-4738 (URN)978-91-7178-924-2 (ISBN)
Public defence
2008-05-26, Hall C, KTH-Forum, Isafjordsgatan 39, Stockholm, 13:00
Opponent
Supervisors
Note
QC 20100909Available from: 2008-05-09 Created: 2008-05-09 Last updated: 2010-09-09Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
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  • Other locale
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Output format
  • html
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  • asciidoc
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