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Extreme Value Analysis of Power System Data
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Electrical Engineering, Electromagnetic Engineering. (QED-AM)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2462-8340
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Electrical Engineering, Electromagnetic Engineering. (QED-AM)
2019 (English)In: ITISE 2019 International Conference on Time Series and Forecasting: Proceedings of Abstract 25-27 September 2019 Granada (Spain) / [ed] Ignacio Rojas, 2019, Vol. 1, p. 322-327Conference paper, Oral presentation with published abstract (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

In the electric system, the consumption varies throughout the year, during the week and during the day. The consumption should be balanced by the production, which is not easy with solar power and wind power, as they lack storage like the dams for hydropower. Then these sources should be modelled as time series. The time series analyzed is the solar and wind power production in Sweden during 5 months. The method is called Peaks over Threshold or POT and it calculates the frequency of peaks above a certain threshold. It also determines the distribution of the size of the peaks, which is the generalized Pareto distribution in this case. Two different clustering methods are tried; one by Lindgren and the other one a modification of Leadbetter's method. The latter one gives the best fit. However, some ten years of data should be analyzed in order to include the seasonal effects.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019. Vol. 1, p. 322-327
Keywords [en]
extreme value theory, energy production
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Applied and Computational Mathematics, Mathematical Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-265541OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-265541DiVA, id: diva2:1377898
Conference
ITISE 2019 - International Conference on Time Series and Forecasting, 25-27 September 2019 Granada (Spain)
Funder
SweGRIDS - Swedish Centre for Smart Grids and Energy Storage, FPS7
Note

QC 20191213

Available from: 2019-12-12 Created: 2019-12-12 Last updated: 2019-12-13Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
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  • Other style
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  • en-US
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Output format
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