Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
An expert elicitation of climate, energy and economic uncertainties
UCL Energy Institute, University College London, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, United Kingdom.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9367-1791
UCL Energy Institute, University College London, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, United Kingdom.
2013 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 61, p. 811-821Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Critical energy policy decisions rely on expert assessments of key future uncertainties. But existing modelling techniques that help form these expert assessments often ignore the existence of uncertainty. Consequently, techniques to measure these uncertainties are of increasing importance. We use one technique, expert elicitation, to assess six key uncertain parameters with 25 UK energy experts across academia, government and industry. We obtain qualitative descriptions of the uncertain parameters and a novel data set of probability distributions describing individual expert beliefs. We conduct a sensitivity analysis on weights for a linear opinion pool and show that aggregated median beliefs in 2030 are: for oil price $120/barrel (90% CI: 51, 272); for greenhouse gas price $34/tCO2e (90% CI: 5, 256) and for levelised cost of low-carbon electricity 17.1 US cents/kWh (90% CI: 8.3, 31.0). The quantitative results could inform model validation, help benchmark policy makers’ beliefs or provide probabilistic inputs to models.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2013. Vol. 61, p. 811-821
Keywords [en]
Energy, Expert elicitation, Uncertainty
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-257701DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.110ISI: 000325443500082Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84881664713OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-257701DiVA, id: diva2:1387258
Note

QC 20200122

Available from: 2020-01-21 Created: 2020-01-21 Last updated: 2020-01-22Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full textScopus

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Usher, William
In the same journal
Energy Policy
Energy Systems

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 2 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf