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Argument-based decision support for risk analysis
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Philosophy and History.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0071-3919
Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Environm Decis, Zurich, Switzerland..
2018 (English)In: Journal of Risk Research, ISSN 1366-9877, E-ISSN 1466-4461, Vol. 21, no 12, p. 1449-1464Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The calculation of statistical expectation values is a most useful tool in risk analysis, but it is not a panacea. Valuable additional decision support can be obtained from argument-based tools, i.e. rigorous tools based on conceptual distinctions and logical reasoning. If the decision problem is not well defined, then argument-based tools can be used to analyse the uncertainties involved and provide a more well-reasoned presentation of the problem. If the available information is insufficient for a reliable quantitative analysis, then argument-based tools can partly replace it as guidance for the decision-making process. Argument-based tools can be grouped into three main categories: (1) tools used to determine the impact of alternative structurings of decisions and to make an informed choice among them, (2) tools used for the evaluation of decision options, and (3) tools used for the choice among such options in terms of the relative strengths of the arguments that speak for and against each of the options.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Routledge, 2018. Vol. 21, no 12, p. 1449-1464
Keywords [en]
argument-based tools, uncertainty, problem structuring, evaluation, choice
National Category
Philosophy
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-270817DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2017.1313767ISI: 000458376100001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85018443682OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-270817DiVA, id: diva2:1414539
Note

QC 20200313

Available from: 2020-03-13 Created: 2020-03-13 Last updated: 2020-03-13Bibliographically approved

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Hansson, Sven Ove

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