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Land, energy and water resource management and its impact on GHG emissions, electricity supply and food production- Insights from a Ugandan case study
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0764-2615
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2535-4134
Simon Fraser University. (School of Sustainable Energy Engineering)
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology.
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(English)In: Article in journal (Refereed) Submitted
Abstract [en]

Despite the excitement around the nexus between land, energy and water resource systems, policies enacted to govern and use these resources are still formulated in isolation, without considering the interdependencies. Using a Ugandan case study, we highlight the impact that one policy change in the energy system will have on other resource systems. We focus on deforestation, long term electricity supply planning, crop production, water consumption, land-use change and climate impacting greenhouse gas (GHG) trajectories. In this study, an open-source integrated modelling framework is used to map the ripple effects of a policy change related to reducing biomass consumption. We find that, despite the reduction in deforestation of woodlands and forests, the GHG emissions in the power sector is expected to increase in between 2040-2050, owing to higher fossil fuel usage. This policy change is also likely to increase the cost of electricity generation, which in turn affects the agricultural land types. There is a shift from irrigated to rainfed type land due to higher electricity costs. Through the use of this integrated model setup for Uganda, we highlight the need for integrated policy planning that takes into consideration the interlinkages between the resource systems and cross propagation effects.

Keywords [en]
integrated policy planning, land, energy, water, Uganda, GHG emissions, irrigation, electricity infrastructure
National Category
Environmental Management
Research subject
Energy Technology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-271157OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-271157DiVA, id: diva2:1415670
Note

QC 20200319

Available from: 2020-03-19 Created: 2020-03-19 Last updated: 2020-04-09Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Impact of climate change on integrated resource systems- Insights from selected East African case studies
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Impact of climate change on integrated resource systems- Insights from selected East African case studies
2020 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

With countries revisiting their climate pledges agreed at the conference of parties (COP) in Paris, in 2015, the discussion on the impact of changes in the long-term climate on natural resources has never been more relevant. Specifically, since the 2011 Bonn conference on the nexus between resource systems, the interlinkages between energy, water and land resource systems and their climatic connections are on the radar. Despite the excitement around the nexus between the climate, land, energy and water (CLEW) systems, they are still explored in isolation in many countries. This has resulted in lopsided policies, making long-term infrastructure investments vulnerable to climatic changes. This dissertation, taking the case of the Eastern African region, adds to this discussion on resource interactions, sectoral policy decisions and climate resilience. This dissertation includes a cover essay and four appended papers. By employing regional (East Africa) and national (Uganda) case studies, quantitative methods are presented addressing three research questions, relevant to the discussion on climate change and its impact on key resource systems. This thesis combines the usage of two modelling frameworks and downscaled climatic data to emphasise the need for an integrated approach to adapt to climate change. First, the climate resilience of electricity supply expansion strategies is evaluated for the countries in the Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP). Our results highlight that the opportunity costs in planning for a slightly wetter climate than the baseline are less than adapting for a drier one. The potential of electricity interconnectors in mitigating the impact of climate change is also evaluated. The national-level study on Uganda explores the effect of climatic change on a hydropower dominated electricity sector by taking into consideration different minimum river flow regulations. This dissertation finds that even under the cumulatively wettest climate future, having flow constraints will lead to a reduction in hydropower generation. This is critical to energy planners while making important decisions on future electricity supply infrastructure. This thesis also generates datasets on climate and region-specific crop-yield variability in Uganda. For the first time, the water and energy implications of implementing the national irrigation master plan in Uganda are analysed. The results of this dissertation led to interesting conclusions on the importance of climate-model and emission-scenario selection. Finally, by using an integrated model setup—consisting of energy, water and land systems—this thesis emphasises the importance of understanding the cross-propagative effects that policies enacted on one resource system can have on other interlinked systems. Thereby, it emphasises the need for a cohesive, integrated and collaborative approach to policymaking.

Abstract [sv]

Sammanfattning

Diskussionerna kring de långsiktiga klimatförändringarna och dess effekter på naturtillgångar har aldrig varit mer relevant. Inte minst med anledning av att länder återbesöker sina klimatåtaganden från Förenta Nationernas klimatkonferens 2015. Mer specifikt så har samspelet mellan energi-, vatten- och land-resurser samt deras inverkan på klimatet stått i centrum. Trots det ökade intresset för sambandet mellan klimat-, land-, energi - och vatten-system (CLEW), behandlas de olika systemen fortfarande separat i många länder. Detta har resulterat i felprioriterad politik och investeringar i stora infrastrukturprojekt sårbara gentemot klimatförändringar. Denna avhandling bidrar till diskussionen kring resursinteraktioner, sektorpolitiska beslut och klimatsäkerhet ur ett Östafrikanskt perspektiv.

Denna avhandling innehåller en omslagssatsa och fyra medföljande artiklar. Genom att använda regionala (Östafrika) och nationella (Uganda) fallstudier, presenteras kvantitativa metoder för att besvara tre forskningsfrågor som är relevanta för diskussionen kring klimatförändringar och dess påverkan på vitala resurssystem. Denna avhandling kombinerar användandet av två modelleringsramverk och klimatdata för att understryka behovet av en integrerad strategi för att anpassa samhället till klimatförändringarna.

Först utvärderas klimatmotståndskraften för de nuvarande utvidgningsstrategierna för de Östafrikanska elförsörjningssystemen (EAPP). Våra resultat belyser att alternativkostnaderna för att planera för ett något våtare klimat än väntat är mindre än att anpassa sig till ett torrare. Möjligheten att sammankoppla olika elsystem för att på så sätt minska påverkan från klimatförändringar har också undersökts. Studien på Uganda analyserar effekterna av klimatförändringar på en kraftsektor dominerad av vattenkraft. Detta görs genom att ta hänsyn till den minimala vattenföringen vid olika tillfällen. Avhandlingen konstaterar att även under ett kontinuerligt vått klimat kommer flödesbegränsningar att leda till en minskning av elproduktion. Detta är avgörande för energiplanerare då elförsörjningens framtida infrastruktur planeras. 

 

Denna avhandling tar också fram data kring klimatscenarion, samt region- och grödospecifik variabilitet i Uganda. För första gången har konsekvenserna för vatten- och energisystemen av att genomföra den nationella bevattningsplanen i Uganda analyserats. Baserat på resultatet av denna avhandling kan intressanta slutsatser dras kring valet av klimatmodell och vikten av korrekt val av utsläppsscenario. Slutligen, med hjälp av en integrerad modelluppsättning—innehållande energi-, vatten- och land-system—belyser denna avhandling de rippel- eller korsförökande effekterna av en resurssystempolitik på andra sammanlänkade system. Genom detta betonas behovet vikten av en sammanhängande, integrerad och samarbetsinriktad strategi för beslutsfattande.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2020. p. 108
Series
TRITA-ITM-AVL ; 2020:17
Keywords
climate change; integrated assessment; Uganda; agriculture; water and energy systems; climate resilience; CLEW nexus
National Category
Energy Systems Energy Engineering
Research subject
Energy Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-271700 (URN)978-91-7873-496-2 (ISBN)
Public defence
2020-05-04, https://kth-se.zoom.us/webinar/register/1115874955885/WN_U-wBGMbpRYCtA9uUWrkzLw, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2020-04-09 Created: 2020-04-09 Last updated: 2020-04-30Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

The full text will be freely available from 2020-06-30 12:42
Available from 2020-06-30 12:42

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Sridharan, VigneshShivakumar, AbhishekRamos, EuniceHowells, Mark I.

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