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Envisioning carbon-free land use futures for Sweden: a scenario study on conflicts and synergies between environmental policy goals
Univ Osnabruck, Inst Environm Syst Res, Barbarastr 12, D-49069 Osnabruck, Germany..
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Strategic Sustainability Studies.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0218-9746
Philosophy and History, KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Philosophy and History of Technology, Philosophy.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4063-3219
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering.
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2020 (English)In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 20, no 2, article id 35Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In climate change mitigation, backcasting scenarios are often used for exploring options for achieving a single environmental goal, albeit at the expense of other goals. This paper assesses potential conflicts and synergies between multiple environmental policy goals based on four future scenarios on Swedish rural land use, assuming zero GHG emissions in 2060. The assessment shows that goal conflicts are apparent, and policy makers need to make trade-offs between goals. The choice of strategy for dealing with these trade-offs yields conflicts or synergies. The assessment shows that a transition to zero GHG emissions provides opportunities for Sweden to shift to carbon free land-use planning. Overall, there are alternative ways with different underlying assumptions to achieve zero GHG emissions, which will feed discussions on new opportunities to overcome multi-scale and multi-sectoral goal conflicts. Multi-target backcasting scenarios are considered more suited to account for the multi-dimensional aspects of goal conflicts. This requires a comprehensive multi-target backcasting approach, which combines the strengths of multicriteria analysis, nexus approaches and backcasting, for supporting a transition to zero GHG emissions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Berlin/Heidelberg, 2020. Vol. 20, no 2, article id 35
Keywords [en]
Backcasting scenarios, Goal conflicts, Synergies, Climate change mitigation
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-271504DOI: 10.1007/s10113-020-01618-5ISI: 000519139500001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85081283981OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-271504DiVA, id: diva2:1426881
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QC 20200428

Available from: 2020-04-28 Created: 2020-04-28 Last updated: 2020-04-28Bibliographically approved

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Svenfelt, ÅsaEdvardsson Björnberg, KarinFauré, EleonoreMilestad, Rebecka
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