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Self-preservation strategy for approaching global warming targets in the post-Paris Agreement era
Beijing Inst Technol, Ctr Energy & Environm Policy Res, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China.;Beijing Inst Technol, Sch Management & Econ, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China.;Beijing Key Lab Energy Econ & Environm Management, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China..
Beijing Inst Technol, Ctr Energy & Environm Policy Res, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China.;Beijing Key Lab Energy Econ & Environm Management, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China..
Beijing Inst Technol, Ctr Energy & Environm Policy Res, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China.;Beijing Inst Technol, Sch Management & Econ, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China..
Beijing Inst Technol, Ctr Energy & Environm Policy Res, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China.;Beijing Inst Technol, Sch Management & Econ, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China.;Beijing Key Lab Energy Econ & Environm Management, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China..ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3108-2702
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2020 (English)In: Nature Communications, ISSN 2041-1723, E-ISSN 2041-1723, Vol. 11, no 1Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A strategy that informs on countries' potential losses due to lack of climate action may facilitate global climate governance. Here, we quantify a distribution of mitigation effort whereby each country is economically better off than under current climate pledges. This effort-sharing optimizing approach applied to a 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming threshold suggests self-preservation emissions trajectories to inform NDCs enhancement and long-term strategies. Results show that following the current emissions reduction efforts, the whole world would experience a washout of benefit, amounting to almost 126.68-616.12 trillion dollars until 2100 compared to 1.5 degrees C or well below 2 degrees C commensurate action. If countries are even unable to implement their current NDCs, the whole world would lose more benefit, almost 149.78-791.98 trillion dollars until 2100. On the contrary, all countries will be able to have a significant positive cumulative net income before 2100 if they follow the self-preservation strategy. The emission allocation strategies of global scenarios do not specify the potential benefits from extra climate mitigation efforts. Here the authors show that compared to the current Nationally Distributed Contributions, the proposed self-preservation strategy might generate 126-616 trillion dollars of additional benefits by 2100.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP , 2020. Vol. 11, no 1
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Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
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URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-273506DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-15453-zISI: 000528787700001PubMedID: 32286257Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85083406109OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-273506DiVA, id: diva2:1431375
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QC 20200520

Available from: 2020-05-20 Created: 2020-05-20 Last updated: 2020-05-20Bibliographically approved

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Yan, Jinyue

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