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Risk analysis: a tool in decision-making
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Safety Research (closed 20110301).ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7606-8771
2005 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other scientific)
Abstract [en]

In our daily life we are surrounded by different kind of risks and we constantly strive for better methods to quantify and in the prolongation manage these risks. Every activity involves some risks and there are some kinds of risks and some level of risks that we are unwilling to accept. We all like to live a life that is free from risks, but that is impossible.

The word risk has a lot of different interpretations. In this thesis we shall let risk stand for the combination of random or uncertain events with negative consequences for human health, life and welfare and for the environment together with some measures of the likelihood of such events. We believe this is the prevailing concept or understanding of risk; as the probability of an event followed by some negative consequences or activities of that event.

In risk analysis one tries to recognize the nature of various risks and to assess the magnitude of the risks. In the risk analysis it is very important to know what system to consider and this is not self evident in many cases. The situation is clearly different for planning and/or building a system compared with running the same system in a real time state. The system that is going to be the subject to the risk analysis must be clearly defined and the limitations and the boundaries of the system must be set. It is very important to ensure that all persons involved in a risk analysis have a common understanding of the system being considered, including relevant operations.

During the past decades many studies have been carried out on risk related topics and the society has showed a significant interest in the field of risk analysis. Risk analysis is the interdisciplinary field of science that combines results and knowledge of probability theory, mathematical statistics, engineering, medicine, philosophy, psychology, economics and other applied disciplines.

In this thesis we will give some examples of different risk analyses carried out basically within two areas. The first part of the thesis (paper 1- paper V) describes different risk analyses carried out in the area of transportation. This is an area with large differences between the different modes of transportation in respect to, for example number of users, number of accidents, magnitude of the accidents and accessible data. The latter part of the thesis (paper VI and paper VII) describes two risk analyses carried out in the field of medicine. Medicine is a science, which has used methods from the area of risk analysis for a long time. The different papers will be used to discuss risk analysis as a tool in decision-making.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH , 2005. , 29 p.
Series
TRITA-INFRA, ISSN 1651-0216 ; 05:22
National Category
Other Civil Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-612ISBN: 91-7323-128-2 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-612DiVA: diva2:14614
Presentation
2005-09-29, Sal V2, Teknikringen 72, Stockholm, 10:15
Note

QC 20100616

Available from: 2006-02-07 Created: 2006-02-07 Last updated: 2016-04-21Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Empiriska demonstrationsexempel av data och datakällor för riskanalys/riskvärdering inom järnvägsområdet.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Empiriska demonstrationsexempel av data och datakällor för riskanalys/riskvärdering inom järnvägsområdet.
1993 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH, 1993
Series
TRITA-AMI REPORT, 3031
National Category
Other Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-9056 (URN)
Note
QC 20100616Available from: 2006-02-07 Created: 2006-02-07 Last updated: 2016-04-21Bibliographically approved
2. Riskanalyser/riskvärdering inom järnvägsområdet
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Riskanalyser/riskvärdering inom järnvägsområdet
1993 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Statens väg- och trafikinstitut, 1993. 114 p.
Series
VTI Rapporter, 381
National Category
Other Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-9057 (URN)991-609679-1 (ISBN)
Note
QC 20100616Available from: 2006-02-07 Created: 2006-02-07 Last updated: 2016-04-21Bibliographically approved
3. Metodik för före-/efterstudier: tillämpat på cyklisters trafiksäkerhet
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Metodik för före-/efterstudier: tillämpat på cyklisters trafiksäkerhet
Show others...
1997 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [sv]

I denna studie utvecklas och tillämpas metodiken för före/efter studier för att skatta effekten på cyklisters säkerhet av att höja upp cykelöverfarter 3-12 cm över körbanenivån. Fem ombyggda korsningar av varierande utförande studerades. Motriktad cykeltrafik mot tillåten riktning var inte särskilt vanligt. Cykelflödet mättes före och efter, vilket visar att de nybyggda cykellederna attraherade 50 procent mer cyklister. Skattning av riskförändringen gjordes med tre metoder, enligt enkäter med cyklister och experter samt enligt en kvantitativ expertmodell. De tre metoderna gav smastämmiga resultat, säkerheten för cyklisterna hade förbättrats med 30 - 50 procent.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Kommunikationsforskningsberedningen, 1997
Series
KFB-Rapport, 1997:15
Keyword
BAS B, Cykeltrafik, Cykelbanor, Trafikplanering, Trafiksäkerhet, Åtgärder, Göteborg
National Category
Other Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-9058 (URN)
Note
QC 20100616Available from: 2006-02-07 Created: 2006-02-07 Last updated: 2016-04-21Bibliographically approved
4. Säkerhetsanalys beträffande föreslagen ny vägsträckning jämfört med gammal vägsträckning av väg E 22, delen Söderåkra-Hossmo vid Vassmolösa
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Säkerhetsanalys beträffande föreslagen ny vägsträckning jämfört med gammal vägsträckning av väg E 22, delen Söderåkra-Hossmo vid Vassmolösa
1995 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH, 1995. 31 p.
Series
Trita-AMI Report, ISSN 1400-1306 ; 3030
National Category
Other Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-9059 (URN)
Note
QC 20100616Available from: 2006-02-07 Created: 2006-02-07 Last updated: 2016-04-21Bibliographically approved
5. En statistisk utvärdering av de mått SAS använder för att kontrollera uppfyllelsen av de flygsäkerhetsmål man satt upp
Open this publication in new window or tab >>En statistisk utvärdering av de mått SAS använder för att kontrollera uppfyllelsen av de flygsäkerhetsmål man satt upp
1996 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH, 1996. 30 p.
Series
Trita AMI Report, ISSN 1400-1306 ; 3029
National Category
Other Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-9060 (URN)992-483690-1 (ISBN)
Note
QC 20100616Available from: 2006-02-07 Created: 2006-02-07 Last updated: 2016-04-21Bibliographically approved
6. Acute Appendicitis: a Clinical Study of 1018 Cases of Emergency Appendectomy
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Acute Appendicitis: a Clinical Study of 1018 Cases of Emergency Appendectomy
1982 (English)In: Acta chirurgica Scandinavica, ISSN 0001-5482, Vol. 148, no 1, 51-62 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Norstedts, 1982
National Category
Medical and Health Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-9061 (URN)7136412 (PubMedID)
Note
QC 20100616Available from: 2006-02-07 Created: 2006-02-07 Last updated: 2016-04-21Bibliographically approved
7. Clinical Significance of Mucosal Inflammation of the Vermiform Appendix
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Clinical Significance of Mucosal Inflammation of the Vermiform Appendix
1983 (English)In: Annals of Surgery, ISSN 0003-4932, E-ISSN 1528-1140, Vol. 197, no 3, 368-374 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In 942 emergency appendectomies, the clinical data of 77 patients with inflammatory changes confined to the mucosa of the vermiform appendix were compared with data from 622 patients with diffuse acute appendicitis and 243 patients without evidence of inflammation in the appendix. In all cases, routine histologic sections of the specimens were reviewed. Of the 77 patients with mucosal appendiceal inflammation, 50 were female and 50% were under 17 years of age. In several clinical aspects, such as incidence of nausea, vomiting, migration of pain, and localized muscular rigidity, there existed significant differences between patients with mucosal inflammation and patients with diffuse appendicitis. Conversely, no statistically significant differences were found between patients with mucosal inflammation and patients without evident appendiceal inflammation. These results in addition to the frequent finding of histologically indistinguishable changes in appendices removed incidentally suggest that the condition is not responsible for the actual complaint.

National Category
Medical and Health Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-9062 (URN)PMC1352743 (PubMedID)
Note
QC 20100616Available from: 2006-02-07 Created: 2006-02-07 Last updated: 2016-04-21Bibliographically approved

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