kth.sePublications
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Surrogate models for rural energy planning: Application to Bolivian lowlands isolated communities
Univ Liege, Integrated & Sustainable Energy Syst, Liege, Belgium.;San Simon Univ, Ctr Univ Invest Energia, Cochabamba, Bolivia..
Politecn Milan, Dept Energy, Milan, Italy.;Delft Univ Technol, Dept Engn Syst & Serv, Delft, Netherlands..
Politecn Milan, Dept Energy, Milan, Italy.;FEEM Fdn Eni Enrico Mattei, Milan, Italy..
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology.
Show others and affiliations
2021 (English)In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 232, article id 121108Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Thanks to their modularity and their capacity to adapt to different contexts, hybrid microgrids are a promising solution to decrease greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. To properly assess their impact in different settings at country or cross-country level, microgrids must be designed for each particular situation, which leads to computationally intractable problems. To tackle this issue, a methodology is proposed to create surrogate models using machine learning techniques and a database of microgrids. The selected regression model is based on Gaussian Processes and allows to drastically decrease the computation time relative to the optimal deployment of the technology. The results indicate that the proposed methodology can accurately predict key optimization variables for the design of the microgrid system. The regression models are especially well suited to estimate the net present cost and the levelized cost of electricity (R-2 = 0.99 and 0.98). Their accuracy is lower when predicting internal system variables such as installed capacities of PV and batteries (R-2 = 0.92 and 0.86). A least-cost path towards 100% electrification coverage for the Bolivian lowlands mid-size communities is finally computed, demonstrating the usability and computational efficiency of the proposed framework.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2021. Vol. 232, article id 121108
Keywords [en]
Microgrids, Energy planning, Isolated energy systems, Ruralelectrification, Open energy modelling
National Category
Energy Engineering Energy Systems Control Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-304286DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.121108ISI: 000707611000011Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85107544539OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-304286DiVA, id: diva2:1607368
Note

QC 20211101

Available from: 2021-11-01 Created: 2021-11-01 Last updated: 2022-06-25Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full textScopus

Authority records

Pena Balderrama, J. Gabriela

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Pena Balderrama, J. Gabriela
By organisation
Energy Technology
In the same journal
Energy
Energy EngineeringEnergy SystemsControl Engineering

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 112 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf