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Optimal Day-Ahead Orders Using Stochastic Programming and Noise-Driven Recurrent Neural Networks
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Intelligent systems, Decision and Control Systems (Automatic Control).ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1288-0482
2021 (English)In: 2021 IEEE Madrid PowerTech, PowerTech 2021 - Conference Proceedings, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2021Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

This paper presents a methodology for strategic day-ahead planning that uses a combination of deep learning and optimization. A noise-driven recurrent neural network structure is proposed for forecasting electricity prices and local inflow to water reservoirs. The resulting forecasters generate predictions with seasonal variation without relying on long input sequences. This forecasting method is employed in a stochastic program formulation of the day-ahead problem. This results in optimal order strategies for a price-taking hydropower producer participating in the Nordic day-ahead market. Using an open-source software framework for stochastic programming, the model is implemented and distributed over multiple cores. The model is then solved in parallel using a sampling-based algorithm. Tight confidence intervals around the stochastic solution are provided, which show that the gain from adopting a stochastic approach is statistically significant. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2021.
Keywords [en]
Computer programming, Forecasting, Open source software, Open systems, Reservoirs (water), Stochastic models, Stochastic programming, Stochastic systems, Confidence interval, Day ahead market, Forecasting electricity, Forecasting methods, Sampling-based algorithms, Seasonal variation, Stochastic approach, Stochastic solution, Recurrent neural networks
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering Energy Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-311066DOI: 10.1109/PowerTech46648.2021.9494929ISI: 000848778000179Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85112385085OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-311066DiVA, id: diva2:1652543
Conference
2021 IEEE Madrid PowerTech, PowerTech 2021, 28 June 2021 through 2 July 2021
Note

QC 20220927

Part of proceedings: ISBN 978-166543597-0

Available from: 2022-04-19 Created: 2022-04-19 Last updated: 2022-09-27Bibliographically approved

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Biel, Martin

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
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Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
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Output format
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  • asciidoc
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