Well-Calibrated and Sharp Interpretable Multi-Class Models
2021 (English)In: Conference proceedings: 2021 Modeling Decisions for Artificial Intelligence, Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH , 2021, Vol. 12898, p. 193-204Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]
Interpretable models make it possible to understand individual predictions, and are in many domains considered mandatory for user acceptance and trust. If coupled with communicated algorithmic confidence, interpretable models become even more informative, also making it possible to assess and compare the confidence expressed by the models in different predictions. To earn a user’s appropriate trust, however, the communicated algorithmic confidence must also be well-calibrated. In this paper, we suggest a novel way of extending Venn-Abers predictors to multi-class problems. The approach is applied to decision trees, providing well-calibrated probability intervals in the leaves. The result is one interpretable model with valid and sharp probability intervals, ready for inspection and analysis. In the experimentation, the proposed method is verified using 20 publicly available data sets showing that the generated models are indeed well-calibrated.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH , 2021. Vol. 12898, p. 193-204
Series
Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics), ISSN 0302-9743 ; 12898
Keywords [en]
Algorithmics, Data set, Individual prediction, Multi-class models, Multiclass problem, Probability intervals, Users' acceptance, Decision trees
National Category
Computer Sciences Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-311801DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-85529-1_16ISI: 000885003500016Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85115844466OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-311801DiVA, id: diva2:1655879
Conference
MDAI 2021: Modeling Decisions for Artificial Intelligence, 27 September 2021 through 30 September 2021, Virtual, Online
Note
QC 20221215
Part of proceedings: ISBN 978-303085528-4
2022-05-042022-05-042022-12-15Bibliographically approved