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Metaheuristic Extreme Learning Machine for Improving Performance of Electric Energy Demand Forecasting
Khon Kaen Univ, Fac Engn, Dept Elect Engn, Khon Kaen 40002, Thailand.;Prov Elect Author Thailand PEA, Bangkok 10900, Thailand..
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Electrical Engineering, Electromagnetic Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9138-414x
Prov Elect Author Thailand PEA, Bangkok 10900, Thailand..
Khon Kaen Univ, Fac Engn, Dept Elect Engn, Khon Kaen 40002, Thailand..
2022 (English)In: Computers, E-ISSN 2073-431X, Vol. 11, no 5, article id 66Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Electric energy demand forecasting is very important for electric utilities to procure and supply electric energy for consumers sufficiently, safely, reliably, and continuously. Consequently, the processing time and accuracy of the forecast system are essential to consider when applying in real power system operations. Nowadays, the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) is significant for forecasting as it provides an acceptable value of forecasting and consumes less computation time when compared with the state-of-the-art forecasting models. However, the result of electric energy demand forecasting from the ELM was unstable and its accuracy was increased by reducing overfitting of the ELM model. In this research, metaheuristic optimization combined with the ELM is proposed to increase accuracy and reduce the cause of overfitting of three forecasting models, composed of the Jellyfish Search Extreme Learning Machine (JS-ELM), the Harris Hawk Extreme Learning Machine (HH-ELM), and the Flower Pollination Extreme Learning Machine (FP-ELM). The actual electric energy demand datasets in Thailand were collected from 2018 to 2020 and used to test and compare the performance of the proposed and state-of-the-art forecasting models. The overall results show that the JS-ELM provides the best minimum root mean square error compared with the state-of-the-art forecasting models. Moreover, the JS-ELM consumes the appropriate processing time in this experiment.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
MDPI AG , 2022. Vol. 11, no 5, article id 66
Keywords [en]
electricity forecasting, Extreme Learning Machine, improvement model, machine learning, metaheuristic, Jellyfish Search Optimization, Harris Hawk Optimization, Flower Pollination Algorithm
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-313754DOI: 10.3390/computers11050066ISI: 000801885500001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85129741288OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-313754DiVA, id: diva2:1668226
Note

QC 20220613

Available from: 2022-06-13 Created: 2022-06-13 Last updated: 2022-12-06Bibliographically approved

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Srithapon, Chitchai

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