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Conditional mutual information-based contrastive loss for financial time series forecasting
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Intelligent systems, Information Science and Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2579-2107
RISE Research Institutes of Sweden, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4298-3634
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Intelligent systems, Information Science and Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7807-5681
2020 (English)In: Proceedings ICAIF '20: The First ACM International Conference on AI in Finance, Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) , 2020Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

We present a representation learning framework for financial time series forecasting. One challenge of using deep learning models for finance forecasting is the shortage of available training data when using small datasets. Direct trend classification using deep neural networks trained on small datasets is susceptible to the overfitting problem. In this paper, we propose to first learn compact representations from time series data, then use the learned representations to train a simpler model for predicting time series movements. We consider a class-conditioned latent variable model. We train an encoder network to maximize the mutual information between the latent variables and the trend information conditioned on the encoded observed variables. We show that conditional mutual information maximization can be approximated by a contrastive loss. Then, the problem is transformed into a classification task of determining whether two encoded representations are sampled from the same class or not. This is equivalent to performing pairwise comparisons of the training datapoints, and thus, improves the generalization ability of the encoder network. We use deep autoregressive models as our encoder to capture long-term dependencies of the sequence data. Empirical experiments indicate that our proposed method has the potential to advance state-of-the-art performance.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) , 2020.
Keywords [en]
Classification (of information), Deep neural networks, Equivalence classes, Finance, Signal encoding, Time series, Compact representation, Conditional mutual information, Financial time series forecasting, Learn+, Learning frameworks, Learning models, Over fitting problem, Small data set, Time-series data, Training data, Forecasting
National Category
Computer and Information Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-313547DOI: 10.1145/3383455.3422550Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85095337230OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-313547DiVA, id: diva2:1669305
Conference
ICAIF '20: The First ACM International Conference on AI in Finance, New York, NY, USA, October 15-16, 2020
Note

Part of ISBN 9781450375849

QC 20220614

Available from: 2022-06-14 Created: 2022-06-14 Last updated: 2022-06-25Bibliographically approved

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Wu, HanweiGattami, AtherFlierl, Markus

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Total: 29 hits
CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
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  • de-DE
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  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf