Markov chain Monte Carlo for risk measures
2014 (English) In: SIMULTECH 2014 - Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications, SciTePress , 2014Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]
In this paper, we consider random sums with heavy-tailed increments. By the term random sum, we mean a sum of random variables where the number of summands is also random. Our interest is to construct an efficient method to calculate tail-based risk measures such as quantiles and conditional expectation (expected shortfalls). When assuming extreme quantiles and heavy-tailed increments, using standard Monte Carlo method can be inefficient. In previous works, there exists an efficient method to sample rare-events (tail-events) using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with a given threshold. We apply the sampling method to estimate statistics based on tail-information, with a given rare-event probability. The performance is compared with other methods by some numerical results in the case increments follow Pareto distributions. We also show numerical results with Weibull, and Log-Normal distributions. Our proposed method is shown to be efficient especially in cases of extreme tails.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages SciTePress , 2014.
Keywords [en]
Heavy tails, Markov chain Monte Carlo, Rare-event simulation, Risk measures, Markov chains, Normal distribution, Numerical methods, Pareto principle, Risk assessment, Sampling, Weibull distribution, Conditional expectation, Expected shortfall, Extreme quantiles, Log-normal distribution, Numerical results, Pareto distributions, Rare event probabilities, Monte Carlo methods
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-314154 Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85069468573 OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-314154 DiVA, id: diva2:1671797
Conference 4th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications, SIMULTECH 2014, 28-30 August 2014
Note Part of proceedings ISBN: 9789897580383
QC 20220617
2022-06-172022-06-172022-06-25 Bibliographically approved