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Markov chain Monte Carlo for risk measures
KTH. (Double Degree Program between School of Engineering Science and School of Science for Open and Environmental Systems, Keio University, Yokohama, Japan)
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Mathematical Statistics.
2014 (English)In: SIMULTECH 2014 - Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications, SciTePress , 2014Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

In this paper, we consider random sums with heavy-tailed increments. By the term random sum, we mean a sum of random variables where the number of summands is also random. Our interest is to construct an efficient method to calculate tail-based risk measures such as quantiles and conditional expectation (expected shortfalls). When assuming extreme quantiles and heavy-tailed increments, using standard Monte Carlo method can be inefficient. In previous works, there exists an efficient method to sample rare-events (tail-events) using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with a given threshold. We apply the sampling method to estimate statistics based on tail-information, with a given rare-event probability. The performance is compared with other methods by some numerical results in the case increments follow Pareto distributions. We also show numerical results with Weibull, and Log-Normal distributions. Our proposed method is shown to be efficient especially in cases of extreme tails.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
SciTePress , 2014.
Keywords [en]
Heavy tails, Markov chain Monte Carlo, Rare-event simulation, Risk measures, Markov chains, Normal distribution, Numerical methods, Pareto principle, Risk assessment, Sampling, Weibull distribution, Conditional expectation, Expected shortfall, Extreme quantiles, Log-normal distribution, Numerical results, Pareto distributions, Rare event probabilities, Monte Carlo methods
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-314154Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85069468573OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-314154DiVA, id: diva2:1671797
Conference
4th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications, SIMULTECH 2014, 28-30 August 2014
Note

Part of proceedings ISBN: 9789897580383

QC 20220617

Available from: 2022-06-17 Created: 2022-06-17 Last updated: 2022-06-25Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
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  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf