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An evaluation of deep learning models for urban floods forecasting
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Geoinformatics.
2022 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
En utvärdering av modeller för djupinlärning för prognoser över översvämningar i städer (Swedish)
Abstract [en]

Flood forecasting maps are essential for rapid disaster response and risk management, yet the computational complexity of physically-based simulations hinders their application for efficient high-resolution spatial flood forecasting. To address the problems of high computational cost and long prediction time, this thesis proposes to develop deep learning neural networks based on a flood simulation dataset, and explore their potential use for flood prediction without learning hydrological modelling knowledge from scratch. 

A Fully Convolutional Network (FCN), FCN with multiple outputs (Multioutput FCN), UNet, Graph-based model and their Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) variants are trained on a catchment area with twelve rainfall events, and evaluated on two cases of a specific rainfall event both quantitatively and qualitatively. Among them, Convolution-based models (FCN, Multioutput FCN and UNet) are commonly used to solve problems related to spatial data but do not encode the position and orientation of objects, and Graph-based models can capture the structure of the problem but require higher time and space complexity. RNN-based models are effective for modelling time-series data, however, the computation is slow due to its recurrent nature.

The results show that Multioutput FCN and the Graph-based model have significant advantages in predicting deep water depths (>50 cm), and the application of recurrent training greatly improves the long-term flood prediction accuracy of the base deep learning models. In addition, the proposed recurrent training FCN model performs the best and can provide flood predictions with high accuracy.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2022.
Series
TRITA-ABE-MBT ; 22593
Keywords [en]
Urban flooding forecasting, Convolutional neural networks, Deep learning, Physically-based simulation, Recurrent neural network
Keywords [sv]
Stadsöversvämningsprognoser, konvolutionella neurala nätverk, djupinlärning, fysiskt baserad simulering, återkommande neurala nätverk
National Category
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Energy Engineering Computer and Information Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-315943OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-315943DiVA, id: diva2:1684695
Subject / course
Geoinformatics
Educational program
Master of Science - Transport and Geoinformation Technology
Presentation
2022-07-15, 00:00 (English)
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2022-07-28 Created: 2022-07-28 Last updated: 2025-02-18Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
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