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Non-Gaussian stochastic dynamical model for the El Niño southern oscillation
NORDITA SU;Stockholm Univ, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden..
NORDITA SU;Stockholm Univ, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden.;Stockholm Univ, Dept Math, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden..
Univ Wisconsin, Dept Math, Madison, WI 53706 USA..
KTH, Centres, Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics NORDITA. Stockholm Univ, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden.;Yale Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, New Haven, CT 06520 USA.;Yale Univ, Dept Math, New Haven, CT 06520 USA.;Yale Univ, Dept Phys, New Haven, CT 06520 USA..ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1676-9645
2022 (English)In: Physical Review Research, E-ISSN 2643-1564, Vol. 4, no 2, article id L022065Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A nonautonomous stochastic dynamical model approach is developed to describe the seasonal to interannual variability of the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO). We determine the model coefficients by systematic statistical estimations using partial observations involving only sea surface temperature data. Our approach reproduces the observed seasonal phase locking and its uncertainty, as well as the highly non-Gaussian statistics of ENSO. Finally, we recover the intermittent time series of the hidden processes, including the thermocline depth and the wind bursts.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
American Physical Society (APS) , 2022. Vol. 4, no 2, article id L022065
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-316439DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevResearch.4.L022065ISI: 000824666000005Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85134472832OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-316439DiVA, id: diva2:1688281
Note

QC 20220818

Available from: 2022-08-18 Created: 2022-08-18 Last updated: 2025-02-01Bibliographically approved

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Wettlaufer, John

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