The rapid uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) will be vital to decarbonise the transport sector and achieve climate change targets. However, this transition is leading to an increased demand for key battery materials and associated resource challenges and supply-chain risks. On the other hand, discarded EV batteries create business opportunities for second life and recycling. This study presents scenario-driven material flow analysis (MFA) to estimate the future volume of EV battery wastes to be potentially generated in Sweden and future demand for key battery materials, considering potential EV fleet, battery chemistry developments, and end-of-life strategies of EV batteries. Further, we combine MFA with a socio-technical approach to explore how different socio-technical developments will affect both EV battery flows and the underlying systems in the future. Recycling has the potential to reduce primary demand by 25–64% during 2040–2050 based on projected demand, meaning that waste streams could cover a considerable part of the future raw material demands. Second-use of EV batteries can promote circularity yet postpones recycling potentials. From a transition perspective, promoting recycling, second-life use of EV batteries and advanced battery technologies entail system disruption and transformational changes in technology, markets, business models, policy, and infrastructure and user practices. Demand for high-capacity batteries for grid decarbonisation and aviation applications may contribute to the emergence of niche battery technologies. Each scenario highlights the need for effective policy frameworks to foster a circular EV battery value chain.