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A pseudo-marginal sequential Monte Carlo online smoothing algorithm
AgroParisTech, Paris, France..
Telecom SudParis, Paris, France..ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5211-2328
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Mathematical Statistics.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0772-846X
2022 (English)In: Bernoulli, ISSN 1350-7265, E-ISSN 1573-9759, Vol. 28, no 4, p. 2606-2633Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We consider online computation of expectations of additive state functionals under general path probability measures proportional to products of unnormalised transition densities. These transition densities are assumed to be intractable but possible to estimate, with or without bias. Using pseudo-marginalisation techniques we are able to extend the particle-based, rapid incremental smoother (PaRIS) algorithm proposed in [Bernoulli 23(3) (2017) 1951-1996] to this setting. The resulting algorithm, which has a linear complexity in the number of particles and constant memory requirements, applies to a wide range of challenging path-space Monte Carlo problems, including smoothing in partially observed diffusion processes and models with intractable likelihood. The algorithm is furnished with several theoretical results, including a central limit theorem, establishing its convergence and numerical stability. Moreover, under strong mixing assumptions we establish a novel O(n epsilon) bound on the asymptotic bias of the algorithm, where n is the path length and epsilon controls the bias of the transition-density estimators.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability , 2022. Vol. 28, no 4, p. 2606-2633
Keywords [en]
Central limit theorem, exponential concentration, partially observed diffusions, particle smoothing, pseudo-marginal methods, sequential Monte Carlo methods
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-317337DOI: 10.3150/21-BEJ1431ISI: 000843190100019Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85128568803OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-317337DiVA, id: diva2:1694511
Note

QC 20220909

Available from: 2022-09-09 Created: 2022-09-09 Last updated: 2022-09-09Bibliographically approved

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Olsson, Jimmy

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  • apa
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