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Will leisure trips be more affected than work trips by autonomous technology?: Modelling self-driving public transport and cars in Stockholm, Sweden
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Centres, Integrated Transport Research Lab, ITRL.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6986-972x
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Engineering Mechanics, Vehicle Engineering and Solid Mechanics. KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Centres, Integrated Transport Research Lab, ITRL.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2265-9004
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Centres, Integrated Transport Research Lab, ITRL.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2011-6273
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4106-3126
2022 (English)In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 165, p. 1-19Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Self-driving technology may lead to a paradigm shift for the transport industry with shared cars available to every-one. However, this vision has increasingly been challenged as too optimistic and unsubstantiated. In this study we explore societal impacts of using this technology for both cars and public transport and investigate differences depending on geography and trip purpose. Four scenarios were designed through workshops with 130 transport experts, modelled using a conventional four-step model for Stockholm, Sweden and evaluated in terms of changes to mode choice, number of trips and person kilometres.We find larger increases for non-commuting trips, i.e. service and leisure trips, than for commuting trips, questioning the view of the 'productive work trip' as self-driving technology's main impact on society. As these trips are primarily made outside of rush hours, this may lead to a changed transport system. Geographic differences are substantial and heavily dependent on the cost model for car alternatives, even indicating a reduction in car travel in rural areas if private ownership would be replaced by shared cars. Furthermore, walking and cycling levels decreased in all scenarios while enhancing public transport using self-driving technology had a limited impact on ridership.These results show that the impacts of self-driving technology may have varied societal impacts even within a region and may lead to increased car travel, especially off-peak. These conclusions stress the need for policies that are sensitive to both geography and time.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2022. Vol. 165, p. 1-19
Keywords [en]
Autonomous vehicle, Trip purpose, Mode choice, Travel demand modelling, Large-scale simulation
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-319426DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2022.08.023ISI: 000855679600001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85137175737OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-319426DiVA, id: diva2:1699837
Note

QC 20220929

Available from: 2022-09-29 Created: 2022-09-29 Last updated: 2024-05-16Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Beyond Technology: Understanding societal impacts of implementing self-driving vehicle systems on road transport
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Beyond Technology: Understanding societal impacts of implementing self-driving vehicle systems on road transport
2024 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

During the last decade, self-driving vehicles have become a major topic of interest, promising to transform transport by making travel safer and more efficient. However, as we move closer to making these vehicles a reality, it has become clear that introducing them into society might not be as straightforward as once thought, and there are growing doubts about the benefits they are supposed to offer.

In this thesis, I investigate the societal impacts of self-driving vehicles by exploring four aspects: reasons for researching self-driving vehicles, how these vehicles could be implemented, the societal impacts of fully implementing self-driving vehicles, and their relationship to sustainability goals.

I find that the motivation for researching this topic is often opaque, and the existence of the technology itself is used as a justification for more research. 

Furthermore, most research into realising self-driving vehicles focuses on purely technical aspects such as designing better algorithms. However, I show that many challenges remain connected to the sociotechnical intertwinement of self-driving vehicles. For instance, I illustrate how they will interact with pedestrians and how services using self-driving vehicles would be practically organised.

Additionally, self-driving vehicles are likely to impact many aspects of society, such as congestion, accessibility, and economic factors. However, I demonstrate that no single framework successfully captures all the identified societal impacts, which are likely to depend on diverse factors such as geographical variations.

The impacts further affect sustainability, where new challenges are likely to emerge. I show that while current tools to govern the transport system are still relevant, a comprehensive approach is needed to ensure that policymakers make well-considered decisions. 

In conclusion, I call for a more balanced view of self-driving vehicles. Introducing this new technology requires careful planning and governance to ensure that self-driving vehicle systems genuinely enhance our quality of life and help build a sustainable future. 

Abstract [sv]

Självkörande fordon har framställts som en viktig pusselbit för att uppnå hållbara och säkra resor, med möjligheter att förbättra trafikflödet, minska utsläppen och öka trafiksäkerheten. Det har dock visat sig att introduktionen av denna nya teknik inte var så enkel som det till en början framställdes, och att effekterna inte nödvändigtvis bara är positiva.

I denna avhandling undersöker jag de samhälleliga effekterna av att införa självkörande fordon, uppdelat i fyra områden: varför forskning sker på området, hur de skulle realiseras, de samhälleliga effekterna av ett införande, samt relationen mellan självkörande fordon och hållbarhet.

Jag visar att motiveringen för att göra forskning på området ofta är oklar och att själva existensen av forskning på området används för att självrättfärdiga mer forskning.

Den mesta forskningen om att realisera självkörande fordon fokuserar på rent tekniska aspekter, såsom bättre algoritmer. Även om många utmaningar kvarstår på det området visar jag även att många andra praktiska problem kvarstår, kopplade till den sociotekniska kopplingen mellan teknik och samhälle. Till exempel saknas lösningar för hur fordonen skulle interagera med fotgängare, och de självkörande fordonen skulle dessutom behöva organiseras praktiskt på något sätt.

Effekterna av självkörande teknik skulle även påverka många delar av samhället såsom framkomlighet, tillgänglighet och ekonomi. Därutöver demonstrerar jag att inget nuvarande ramverk för att förstå samhällseffekter lyckas fånga samtliga aspekter, och att effekterna skulle variera med hänsyn till t ex geografi.

Dessa samhällseffekter får även påverkan på hållbarhet, där nya utmaningar kan uppstå. Jag visar att nuvarande styrmedel för transportsystemet fortfarande är relevanta, men att en helhetssyn krävs för att effektivt hantera utmaningarna. 

Avslutningsvis efterlyser jag en nyanserad bild av självkörande fordon. Att introducera en ny teknik kräver rigorös och framåtsyftande planering och styrning för att säkerställa att självkörande fordon uppnår övergripande hållbarhetsmål och leder till att berika människors liv.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2024. p. 100
Series
TRITA-ITM-AVL ; 2024:10
Keywords
self-driving vehicles, societal effects
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
Machine Design
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-346477 (URN)978-91-8040-942-1 (ISBN)
Public defence
2024-06-13, https://kth-se.zoom.us/j/68249380493, F3, Lindstedtsvägen 26, Stockholm, 14:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Vinnova, 2020-05146Region Stockholm, LS 2017-0585Region Stockholm, RS 2020–0353Swedish Transport Administration, TRV 2019/118695
Available from: 2024-05-21 Created: 2024-05-16 Last updated: 2024-06-03Bibliographically approved

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Almlöf, ErikNybacka, MikaelPernestål Brenden, AnnaJenelius, Erik

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