Information Length Quantification and Forecasting of Power Systems Kinetic EnergyShow others and affiliations
2022 (English)In: IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, ISSN 0885-8950, E-ISSN 1558-0679, Vol. 37, no 6, p. 4473-4484Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]
Power systems operation and planning are facing several short-coming challenges due to the large inclusion of non-synchronous generation and the constant expansion of the electrical network. One of these challenges corresponds to the monitoring and forecasting of power systems Kinetic Energy (KE) to show on-line additional information for the Transmission System Operators (TSOs). In view of this challenge, KE monitoring requires innovative methods to analyse the continuous fluctuations in the system. Moreover, KE forecasting can foresee the status of the strength to overcome further events. In this work, we propose the use of information theory (specifically the concept of information length) as a way to provide useful insight in the power system KE variability and to demonstrate its usage as a starting point in decision making for power systems management. Additionally, a short-period forecasting using a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network model is proposed to estimate the value of information length in real time. The methodology is applied to a monthly collected data from the Nordic Power System. Results show that our method provides an effective description of the seasonal statistical variability.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2022. Vol. 37, no 6, p. 4473-4484
Keywords [en]
Data Fluctuation Analysis, Entropy, Fluctuations, Forecasting, Information Length, Kinetic Energy Variability, Measurement, Power systems, Probability density function, Support Decision Tools, Time-series Forecasting, Wind power generation, Decision making, Electric power generation, Electric power transmission, Information management, Information use, Kinetic energy, Wind power, Data fluctuation analyse, Energy variability, Fluctuation, Fluctuation analysis, Power, Power system, Time series forecasting, Kinetics
National Category
Energy Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-320336DOI: 10.1109/TPWRS.2022.3146314ISI: 000871076600030Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85124106811OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-320336DiVA, id: diva2:1709974
Note
QC 20221110
2022-11-102022-11-102023-07-26Bibliographically approved