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Consent probability
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301). (Safety Research)
2007 (English)In: International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, ISSN 1466-8297, Vol. 7, no 6-7, 804-812 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The quality of a risk analysis depends on the quality of its constituent probabilities, which are often subject to doubt. The passe (but still widely accepted) dichotomy between subjective and objective probabilities is shown to be inadequate for decision making. Invoking Karl Popper's three-world ontogeny, two other concepts of particular relevance to engineering decision making are introduced: judgemental probability and consent probability, which should satisfy the professional criterion of 'due diligence'. Criteria are suggested to help assess the quality of given probabilities.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2007. Vol. 7, no 6-7, 804-812 p.
Keyword [en]
consent probability, dependability, experts, judgemental probability, risk analysis, risk assessment, engineering decision making, due diligence
National Category
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-9958DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2007.014660ScopusID: 2-s2.0-34548078445OAI: diva2:173513
QC 20111116Available from: 2009-02-16 Created: 2009-02-16 Last updated: 2011-11-16Bibliographically approved

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Thedéen, Torbjörn
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Transport and Economics (closed 20110301)
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