Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Assessment of transport policies toward future emission targets: A backcasting approach for Stockholm 2030
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment.
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics, Transport and Location Analysis.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8901-5978
2006 (English)In: Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management, ISSN 1464-3332, Vol. 8, no 4, 451-478 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Stockholm has set a target for greenhouse gas emissions in the year 2030, based on the United Nation's (IPCC) recommendations for an acceptable CO2 level in the atmosphere. In this study we use a backcasting framework to analyze a range of specific transport policies and fuel technology related developments with respect to the emission target. Our study employs a transport modelling system, traditionally used for forecasts, to quantify the impacts of various travel demand measures (TDM). Our study shows that the change in travel demand, induced by various travel policies, will not suffice on its own to reach the target. Even if fuel price is tripled, a substantial share of renewable fuels is required for target achievement. While our study shows that travel demand measures have a fairly small effect on CO2 emissions, it also hints at other compelling reasons for introducing such measures. Constructive strategies for the transport system would not only contribute to reduce risks with climate change. Even small reductions of transport volumes might imply large socio economic savings in traffic related costs, reduced emissions of substances with health impacts, fewer accidents, shorter travel times and higher travel time reliability. These aspects are arguably all part of a sustainable transport development.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2006. Vol. 8, no 4, 451-478 p.
Keyword [en]
Mobility management; travel demand management; CO2 emission target; policy appraisal; backcasting
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-9968DOI: 10.1142/S1464333206002578Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-33846035238OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-9968DiVA: diva2:173601
Note
QC 20100816Available from: 2009-02-16 Created: 2009-02-16 Last updated: 2010-09-10Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Mobility Management and Climate Change Policies
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Mobility Management and Climate Change Policies
2007 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other scientific)
Abstract [en]

Globally, the transport system faces a paradigmatic shift where, in addition to increased local traffic problems, climate change and depletion of fossil oil reserves will foster a successive transition to renewable fuels and a need for more resource-efficient mobility management and communication alternatives. Foresighted countries, cities or companies taking the lead in adapting to these tougher conditions might well not only solve those problems, but also turn the problems into business advantages. This thesis is based on six studies that attempt to develop future strategies based on rigorous principled emission and energy efficiency targets and to modulate the impact of travel policies, technical components and behaviours in economically advantageous ways. The modelling frameworks developed throughout the thesis build on a target-orientated approach called backcasting, where the following general components are applied: (1) target description at a conceptual level i.e. the potential for sustainable energy systems, emissions, costs, behavioural patterns, preferences, etc.; (2) mapping of the current situation in relation to target description; and (3) modelling of alternative sets of policies, technologies, behaviours and economic prerequisites to arrive at target achievement. Sustainable travel strategies are analysed from two main viewpoints. The first four studies focus on company travel planning, where behavioural modelling proved to be an important tool for deriving targetorientated travel policies consistent with employee preferences. The latter two studies focus on strategies and preconditions to meet future emission targets and energy efficiency requirements at a macroscopic regional level by 2030. Backcasting’s role as a generic methodology for effective strategic planning is discussed.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH, 2007. 37 p.
Series
Trita-SOM , ISSN 1653-6126 ; 2007:05
Keyword
Strategic Sustainable Development (SSD), Backcasting, Greenhouse gas emissions, Traffic planning, Company travel planning, Mobility Management
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-4539 (URN)978-91-7178-780-4 (ISBN)
Public defence
2007-12-07, Sal Vi, KTH, Teknikringen 76, Stockholm, 09:30
Opponent
Supervisors
Note
QC 20100816Available from: 2007-11-16 Created: 2007-11-16 Last updated: 2010-09-10Bibliographically approved
2. Analysing Sustainable Urban Transport and Land-Use: Modelling tools and appraisal frameworks
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Analysing Sustainable Urban Transport and Land-Use: Modelling tools and appraisal frameworks
2008 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other scientific)
Abstract [en]

Sustainable development and climate change is high on the agenda for most cities around the world today. Urban transport is at the heart of these changes. Increasingly, it is recognised that not only is the emission of pollutants and greenhouse gases a problem, but also the detrimental effects of congestion and social exclusion. In order to address these issues, it will be necessary for cities to make strategic long term decisions regarding the future infrastructure and land use, not only in terms of what will be built, but also on measures that affect how these systems are used.This thesis is focused on the decision support tools that we need in order to make well informed decisions. Models that predict the performance of future scenarios, and appraisal frameworks that help evaluate whether these outcomes are desirable or not. The first two papers experiment with different ways of bringing some aspects of sustainability into the appraisal frameworks used to analyse long term strategies. Paper I addresses intergenerational fairness, and Paper II focuses on the emission of greenhouse gases. Paper III develops a model, Scapes, that can help us to better understand the daily travel behaviour, through an activity based approach. By explicitly modelling space-time constraints, and travel time uncertainty in a microeconomic framework, we can get a better understanding of how people can respond to, and value, changes in the transport system. Papers IV and V describe a new integrated land use and transport model, LandScapes.The policy implications from the studies in Papers I, II, and V are that it will be very difficult for Stockholm to reduce its emissions of CO2. Particularly, predicted economic and population growth will inevitably lead to more transport. It is likely that a range of different policies will be necessary to solve that problem. At the same time, we must not forget that decreasing CO2 emissions, although important, is not the only objective Stockholm has. To cope with the increasing travel demand from a growing population, it may well be necessary to build new infrastructure as well. This thesis does not prescribe any such relative valuation between conflicting objectives. It only helps bring them to the fore.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH, 2008. v, 28 p.
Series
Trita-TEC-PHD, ISSN 1653-4468 ; 08:003
Keyword
sustainable development
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-9481 (URN)978-91-85539-33-8 (ISBN)
Public defence
2008-11-28, F3, KTH, Lindstedsvägen 26, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note
QC 20100817Available from: 2008-11-10 Created: 2008-11-06 Last updated: 2010-08-17Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Other links

Publisher's full textScopusWorld Scientific

Authority records BETA

Jonsson, Daniel. R

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Robèrt, MarkusJonsson, Daniel. R
By organisation
Urban Planning and EnvironmentTransport and Location Analysis
In the same journal
Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management
Civil Engineering

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 126 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf