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Housing Market Dynamics
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Real Estate and Construction Management, Real Estate Economics and Finance.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9768-8539
2023 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)Alternative title
Bostadsmarknadens dynamik (Swedish)
Abstract [en]

The dynamics of housing markets constitute a complex phenomenon. The body of research is vast and includes thousands of studies done on the national and international level. Empirical evidence indicates that housing markets differ in local institutional arrangements and that these might affect the ways they develop over time. To analyze housing market dynamics in various institutional environments and to increase our understanding of them is the main objective of this thesis.

The scope of research includes analysis of relevant theories and empirical models that might explain development of house prices over the long run. Given that prices affect housing construction, this thesis also aims to deepen understanding of the impact of the relationship between new construction and underlying fundamentals, together with various institutional arrangements that might differ between countries. In particular, they include bank lending policies, valuation methods for mortgage purposes, different regulatory measures like rent control, as well as land and building policies.

The Swedish apartment market was chosen for empirical analysis. The analysis is carried out by a combination of qualitative and quantitative methodology and applies several research methods, such as systematic literature review, and panel data analysis with application of advanced econometric techniques like Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares, Fixed and Random Effects and Seemingly Unrelated Regressions. Four studies are carried out using these methodologies.

The results indicate that the interest rate, disposable income and population growth seem to be major determinants of house prices according to studies found in the empirical literature (Paper 1). The study also classifies house price determinants in relation to the size of their elasticities. However, fundamental factors cannot always provide an explanation for the deviations in house price dynamics in different countries, whereas the institutional environment might do so (Paper 2). The analysis demonstrates that land prices and building policies, along with a number of market fundamentals, affect the average size of an apartment in new residential construction (Paper 3). In the presence of rent control, the rent or price level does not contribute by adding new units to the total housing stock. In addition, the displacement effect occurs primarily in the market’s rental sector and not in the tenant-owned apartments segment (Paper 4).

This research contributes to a better understanding of housing markets dynamics and suggests policy implications that might reduce the risks for housing bubbles and improve the socio-economic development of the society over the long run.

Abstract [sv]

Bostadsmarknadens dynamik är ett komplext fenomen. Forskningen är enorm och omfattar tusentals studier gjorda på nationell och internationell nivå. Empiriska studier tyder på att bostadsmarknaderna skiljer sig åt i lokala institutionella arrangemang och det kan påverka hur de utvecklas över tiden. Att analysera bostadsmarknadens dynamik i olika institutionella miljöer och att öka vår förståelse om den är huvudsyftet med denna avhandling.

Forskningsfokus ligger på analys av relevanta teorier och empiriska modeller som kan förklara utvecklingen av huspriser på lång sikt. Med tanke på att priserna påverkar bostadsbyggandet är fokus också på att förstå effekterna av sambandet mellan nybyggnation och underliggande fundamentala faktorer tillsammans med olika institutionella arrangemang som kan skilja sig åt mellan länder. De inkluderar banklånepolitik, värderingsmetoder, olika regleringar som hyresreglering, restriktioner av mark- och nybyggnation.

Den svenska bostadsmarknaden valdes för tillämpad analys. Analysen utförs med kombinationen av kvalitativ och kvantitativ metodik och tillämpar flera forskningsmetoder som systematisk litteraturgenomgång och paneldataanalys med tillämpning av avancerade ekonometriska tekniker som Dynamisk Minsta Kvadratmetod (Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares), Fixa- och Slumpmässiga Effekter (Fixed and Random Effects) and Skenbart Orelaterade Regressioner (Seemingly Unrelated Regressions). Fyra studier genomförs med dessa metoder.

Resultaten från empirisk litteratur tyder på att ränta, disponibel inkomst och befolkningstillväxt verkar vara avgörande faktorer för bostadsprisutveckling (Artikel 1). Studien klassificerar fundamentala faktorer i förhållande till storleken på deras elasticitet. De grundläggande faktorerna kan dock inte alltid ge en förklaring till avvikelserna i bostadsprisdynamiken i olika länder, men institutionell miljö kan göra det (Artikel 2). Analysen visar att restriktioner av markpriser och nybyggnation, tillsammans med ett antal grundläggande faktorer, påverkar den genomsnittliga storleken på lägenhet i nybyggnation (Artikel 3). Hyres och prisnivån på bostadsmarknaden med hyresregleringen bidrar inte till utvecklingen av det totala bostadsbeståndet. Undanträngningseffekten uppstår främst i marknadens hyressektor men inte i bostadsrättssegmentet (Artikel 4).

Denna forskning bidrar till en bättre förståelse av bostadsmarknadernas dynamik och föreslår politiska åtgärder som kan minska riskerna för bostadsbubblor och förbättra den socioekonomiska utvecklingen på lång sikt.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2023. , p. 30
Series
TRITA-ABE-DLT ; 2331
Keywords [en]
House prices, new construction, institutional environments, Swedish apartment market
Keywords [sv]
Huspriser, nybyggnation, institutionell miljö, Svenska bostadsmarknaden
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Real Estate and Construction Management
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-327148ISBN: 978-91-8040-611-6 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-327148DiVA, id: diva2:1758058
Public defence
2023-06-12, E3, Osquars backe 2, KTH Campus, https://kth-se.zoom.us/j/63403450921, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

QC230522

Available from: 2023-05-22 Created: 2023-05-21 Last updated: 2023-05-26Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Fundamental determinants of house prices in advanced economies:A systematic literature review.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Fundamental determinants of house prices in advanced economies:A systematic literature review.
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Despite the extensive international interest in house price dynamics and the growing body of research in this area, until now it was not that evident what the fundamental factors are that determine house prices and what the size of their potential impact is on house price dynamics over the long run.

This study provides a systematic literature review of empirical studies on the fundamental determinants of house prices in advanced economies at the aggregated level. It is based on analysis of journal articles published in 58 top-tier housing, urban and real estate journals using bibliometric analysis. The synthesis on house price determinants involves 66 selected studies published in English during the last five decades (1973-2022) and represents a summary of the developments in the field of housing economics related to house price dynamics.

The results of the study suggest that most of the research on house price determinants employed quantitative methodology with a wide variety of econometric techniques. The study presents several key findings related to house price dynamics over the long run. Particularly, it defines fundamental determinants of house prices, classifies them in relation to the size of their elasticities and emphasizes the differences between them. In addition, the study describes the role of data sources as well as quality and modelling techniques, and discusses the impact of inflation, momentum, mean reversion and housing market efficiency. The study ends by assessing the outlook for potential extensions of the existing literature and outlines further research areas.

Keywords
Fundamental determinants of house prices, house price dynamics, advanced economies, systematic literature review
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Real Estate and Construction Management
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-327149 (URN)
Note

QC 20230525

Available from: 2023-05-21 Created: 2023-05-21 Last updated: 2023-05-25Bibliographically approved
2. Long run apartment price dynamics in Swedish and German cities
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Long run apartment price dynamics in Swedish and German cities
2021 (English)In: Journal of European Real Estate Research, ISSN 1753-9269, E-ISSN 1753-9277, Vol. 14, no 3, p. 309-330Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Purpose: This study examines the long term effects of macroeconomic fundamentals on apartment price dynamics in major metropolitan areas in Sweden and Germany. Design/methodology/approach: The main approach is panel cointegration analysis that allows to overcome certain data restrictions such as spatial heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and non-stationary, but cointegrated data. The Swedish dataset includes three cities over a period of 23 years, while the German dataset includes seven cities for 29 years. Analysis of apartment price dynamics include population, disposable income, mortgage interest rate, and apartment stock as underlying macroeconomic variables in the model. Findings: The empirical results indicate that apartment prices react more strongly on changes in fundamental factors in major Swedish cities than in German ones despite quite similar development of these macroeconomic variables in the long run in both countries. On one hand, overreactions in apartment price dynamics might be considered as the evidence of the price bubble building in Sweden. On the other hand, these two countries differ in institutional arrangements of the housing markets, and these differences might contribute to the size of apartment price elasticities from changes in fundamentals. These arrangements include various banking sector policies, such as mortgage financing and valuation approaches, as well as different government regulations of the housing market as, for example, rent control. Originality/value: In distinction to the previous studies carried out on Swedish and German data for single-family houses, this study focuses on the apartment segment of the market and examines apartment price elasticities from a long term perspective. In addition, the results from this study highlight the differences between the two countries at the city level in an integrated long run equilibrium framework.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2021
Keywords
Panel cointegration, Dynamic OLS, Housing market, Price determinants, Macroeconomy
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Real Estate and Construction Management
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-327131 (URN)10.1108/jerer-03-2020-0020 (DOI)000683485300001 ()2-s2.0-85112641404 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20230525

Available from: 2023-05-19 Created: 2023-05-19 Last updated: 2023-06-08Bibliographically approved
3. Exploring the Effects of Municipal Land and Building Policies on Apartment Size in New Residential Construction in Sweden
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Exploring the Effects of Municipal Land and Building Policies on Apartment Size in New Residential Construction in Sweden
2023 (English)In: Journal of Risk and Financial Management, E-ISSN 1911-8074, Vol. 16, no 4, p. 220-220Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

New residential construction in many countries with rapid urban growth is often interrelated with smaller housing units being built. Sweden is not an exception. It is of interest to investigate the driving forces behind this tendency. Our presumption is that municipal land price policies and building permit regulations might play a certain role in this process. Contrary to previous studies that focus on the number of new dwelling units in housing construction, our purpose is to analyze the average size of new housing units and the factors that affect it on an aggregate level. We apply seemingly unrelated regressions for analysis of the average apartment size in new residential construction in the three largest metropolitan regions in Sweden as a function of the changes in population, apartment rent and prices, mortgage interest rates, land prices, and building permits per capita as a proxy for regulation. The unbalanced panel dataset includes the period between 1998 and 2017 and covers both the rental and the housing cooperative sectors. The analysis demonstrates that land prices and building policies along with market fundamentals are the underlying factors that affect the average size of an apartment in new residential construction in Sweden.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
MDPI, 2023
Keywords
apartment size, new residential construction, land prices, building policies
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Real Estate and Construction Management
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-327133 (URN)10.3390/jrfm16040220 (DOI)2-s2.0-85153729328 (Scopus ID)
Funder
KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Housing 2.0 (Bostad 2.0)
Note

QC 20230522

Available from: 2023-05-19 Created: 2023-05-19 Last updated: 2024-06-18Bibliographically approved
4. Long-Term Dynamics of New Residential Supply: A Case Study of the Apartment Segment in Sweden
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Long-Term Dynamics of New Residential Supply: A Case Study of the Apartment Segment in Sweden
2022 (English)In: Buildings, E-ISSN 2075-5309, Vol. 12, no 7, p. 970-, article id 970Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Since the size of the homeownership ratio differs significantly between countries, it is important to understand the mechanisms that lie behind the decrease or growth of certain sectors of the housing market such as rentals and housing cooperatives. The aim of this study is to analyze the long-term dynamics of the new residential supply in Sweden's three largest cities for the period of 1990-2020 and estimate in what way market fundamentals affect it through new construction and housing conversions. We apply panel data methodology and, in distinction to previous research, consider the development of the housing market (urban growth) as physical volume. The results demonstrate that structural changes are driven mainly by fundamental demand factors and that the displacement effect occurs primarily in the market's rental sector and not in the owner-occupied segment. The apartment price per square meter, together with mortgage interest rates, are the major driving factors in the process of converting dwellings into housing cooperatives. Fundamental variables that affect new construction in both the rental and housing cooperative sectors are population and income growth. In the presence of a rent control environment, the rent or price level does not contribute to adding new units to the total housing stock.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
MDPI AG, 2022
Keywords
housing supply, Swedish apartment market, panel data analysis
National Category
Social and Economic Geography Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-316252 (URN)10.3390/buildings12070970 (DOI)000833121400001 ()2-s2.0-85137369597 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20220812

Available from: 2022-08-12 Created: 2022-08-12 Last updated: 2024-01-17Bibliographically approved

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