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Finite Sample Guarantees for Quantile Estimation: An Application to Detector Threshold Tuning
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Intelligent systems, Decision and Control Systems (Automatic Control).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7459-3019
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Intelligent systems, Decision and Control Systems (Automatic Control).ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1835-2963
2023 (English)In: IEEE Transactions on Control Systems Technology, ISSN 1063-6536, E-ISSN 1558-0865, Vol. 31, no 2, p. 921-928Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In threshold-based anomaly detection, we want to tune the threshold of a detector to achieve an acceptable false alarm rate. However, tuning the threshold is often a non-trivial task due to unknown detector output distributions. A detector threshold that provides an acceptable false alarm rate is equivalent to a specific quantile of the detector output distribution. Therefore, we use quantile estimators based on order statistics to estimate the detector threshold. The estimation of quantiles from sample data has a more than a century-long tradition and we provide three different distribution-free finite sample guarantees for a class of quantile estimators. The first is based on the Dvoretzky-Kiefer-Wolfowitz (DKW) inequality, the second utilizes the Vysochanskij-Petunin inequality, and the third is based on exact confidence intervals for a beta distribution. These guarantees are then compared and used in the detector threshold tuning problem. We use both simulated data as well as data obtained from an experimental setup with the Temperature Control Lab to validate the guarantees provided. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2023. Vol. 31, no 2, p. 921-928
Keywords [en]
Detector threshold tuning, fault detection, finite sample guarantees, quantile estimation, Behavioral research, Electric power transmission networks, Errors, Image resolution, Sampling, Behavioral science, False alarm rate, Faults detection, Finite sample guarantee, Finite samples, Power grids, Threshold tuning, Tuning
National Category
Control Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-328103DOI: 10.1109/TCST.2022.3199668ISI: 000860940500001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85139425024OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-328103DiVA, id: diva2:1762174
Note

QC 20230602

Available from: 2023-06-02 Created: 2023-06-02 Last updated: 2025-01-28Bibliographically approved

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Umsonst, DavidSandberg, Henrik

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