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Investigating the Performance of Random Forest Classification for Stock Trading
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI).
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI).
2023 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

We show that with the implementation presented in this paper, the Random Forest Classification model was able to predict whether or not a stock was going to increase in value during the coming day with an accuracy higher than 50\% for all stocks included in this study. Furthermore, we show that the active trading strategy presented in this paper generated higher returns and higher risk-adjusted returns than the passive investment in the stocks underlying the strategy. Therefore, we conclude \textit{(i)} that a Random Forest Classification model can be used to provide valuable insight on publicly traded stocks, and \textit{(ii)} that it is probably possible to create a profitable trading strategy based on a Random Forest Classifier, but that this requires a more sophisticated implementation than the one presented in this paper.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2023.
Series
TRITA-SCI-GRU ; 2023:113
Keywords [en]
Random Forest, Random Forest Classification, Stock Trading, Trading Strategy
National Category
Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-330283OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-330283DiVA, id: diva2:1776799
Subject / course
Mathematical Statistics
Educational program
Master of Science in Engineering - Engineering Mathematics
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2023-06-28 Created: 2023-06-28 Last updated: 2023-06-28Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf