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Advancing participatory backcasting for climate change adaptation planning using 10 cases from 3 continents
DRIFT, Dutch Research Institute for Transitions, Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Faculty of Technology, Policy, Management, Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BX Delft, the Netherlands, Jaffalaan 5.
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Strategic Sustainability Studies.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0218-9746
Wageningen University, Department of Environmental Sciences, 6700AA Wageningen, the Netherlands.
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2023 (English)In: Climate Risk Management, E-ISSN 2212-0963, Vol. 42, article id 100559Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In the face of climate change, a major challenge is to inform and guide long-term climate change adaptation planning under deep uncertainty, while aiming at transformative change. Normative futures studies approaches, such as participatory backcasting, visioning and transition management, are increasingly applied, but their potential for climate change adaptation research and practice remains undervalued. This paper aims to advance the potential of backcasting in climate adaptation, by comparing various climate change adaptation studies that have used backcasting or visioning approaches. A framework has been further developed and applied to evaluate 10 cases in Africa, Europe and North America, using four dimensions: (i) inputs and settings; (ii) process and methods (iii) results, and (iv), impact. Our evaluation provides key insights into the use and further development of backcasting for climate adaptation. Key elements to add are advanced system modeling, robust elements, pathway switching and hybrid pathways, enhancing participation of marginal groups, and contributing to impact by facilitating the utilization of results and knowledge in practice and decision making.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2023. Vol. 42, article id 100559
Keywords [en]
Backcasting, Climate adaptation, Pathways, Scenarios, Visions
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-337447DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100559ISI: 001146804100001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85171344100OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-337447DiVA, id: diva2:1802969
Note

QC 20240206

Available from: 2023-10-06 Created: 2023-10-06 Last updated: 2025-05-05Bibliographically approved

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Svenfelt, Åsa

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