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Long-Term Hydropower Planning for Ethiopia: A Rolling Horizon Stochastic Programming Approach with Uncertain Inflow
School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Addis Ababa Institute of Technology, 385, Addis Ababa, Ethiopi.
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Electrical Engineering, Electric Power and Energy Systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6000-9363
School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Addis Ababa Institute of Technology, 385, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
2023 (English)In: Energies, E-ISSN 1996-1073, Vol. 16, no 21, article id 7399Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

All long-term hydropower planning problems require a forecast of the inflow during the planning period. However, it is challenging to accurately forecast inflows for a year or more. Therefore, it is common to use stochastic models considering the uncertainties of the inflow. This paper compares deterministic and stochastic models in a weekly rolling horizon framework considering inflow uncertainty. The stochastic model is tested in both a risk-neutral and a risk-averse version. The rolling horizon framework helps make periodic decisions and update the information in each rolling week, which minimizes the errors in prolonged forecasts. The models aim to utilize the water stored in the rainy season throughout the year with minimum load shedding while storing as much water as possible at the end of the planning horizon. The Conditional Value at Risk ((Formula presented.)) risk measure is used to develop the risk-averse stochastic model. Three different risk measures are investigated to choose the risk measure that yields the best outcome in the risk-averse problem, and the two best measures are compared to a deterministic and risk-neutral model in a weekly rolling horizon framework. The results show that the risk-neutral and best risk-averse models perform almost equally and are better than the deterministic model. Hence, using a stochastic model would be an improvement to the actual planning performed in the Ethiopian and other African countries’ power systems.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
MDPI AG , 2023. Vol. 16, no 21, article id 7399
Keywords [en]
hydropower, planning model, risk-averse model, rolling horizon, stochastic model, uncertain inflow
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-340111DOI: 10.3390/en16217399ISI: 001100379800001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85176420233OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-340111DiVA, id: diva2:1815186
Note

QC 20231128

Available from: 2023-11-28 Created: 2023-11-28 Last updated: 2024-02-29Bibliographically approved

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Amelin, Mikael

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CiteExportLink to record
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