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Permanent and transitory shocks in owner-occupied housing: A common trend model of price dynamics
Tsinghua-Hang Lung Center for Real Estate Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, PR China; Department of Construction Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing, PR China.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5365-5690
Tsinghua-Hang Lung Center for Real Estate Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, PR China; Department of Construction Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing, PR China.
2012 (English)In: Journal of Housing Economics, ISSN 1051-1377, E-ISSN 1096-0791, Vol. 21, no 4, p. 336-346Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Significant fluctuations in house prices have received considerable attention in recent years. An understanding of the forces underlying the departure from fundamental values is important in explaining the mechanisms underlying housing market performance and predicting potential house price changes in the future. This study constitutes the first use of a common trend (CT) model to analyze private house prices in the Swedish market. We employ a cointegration system to analyze the macro variables of consumption expenditure per capita, user costs and house prices. We decompose shocks into those resulting from fundamental variables, specified in this research as income and the interest rate, and those resulting from cyclical variables. The results indicate that interest rates play a dominant role in explaining house price swings, and are also significant in determining user costs for households in Sweden. Transitory shocks are found to have little explanatory power for house prices and user costs in the long run. A number of tests have been performed to verify the robustness of the specification and results.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2012. Vol. 21, no 4, p. 336-346
Keywords [en]
Common trend model, Private house prices, Permanent shocks, Transitory shocks
National Category
Economics and Business
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-342681DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2012.08.001ISI: 000313090500006Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84870251387OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-342681DiVA, id: diva2:1831568
Note

QC 20240201

Available from: 2024-01-25 Created: 2024-01-25 Last updated: 2024-02-01Bibliographically approved

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Yang, Zan

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CiteExportLink to record
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