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Beyond Technology: Understanding societal impacts of implementing self-driving vehicle systems on road transport
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Engineering Design.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6986-972x
2024 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

During the last decade, self-driving vehicles have become a major topic of interest, promising to transform transport by making travel safer and more efficient. However, as we move closer to making these vehicles a reality, it has become clear that introducing them into society might not be as straightforward as once thought, and there are growing doubts about the benefits they are supposed to offer.

In this thesis, I investigate the societal impacts of self-driving vehicles by exploring four aspects: reasons for researching self-driving vehicles, how these vehicles could be implemented, the societal impacts of fully implementing self-driving vehicles, and their relationship to sustainability goals.

I find that the motivation for researching this topic is often opaque, and the existence of the technology itself is used as a justification for more research. 

Furthermore, most research into realising self-driving vehicles focuses on purely technical aspects such as designing better algorithms. However, I show that many challenges remain connected to the sociotechnical intertwinement of self-driving vehicles. For instance, I illustrate how they will interact with pedestrians and how services using self-driving vehicles would be practically organised.

Additionally, self-driving vehicles are likely to impact many aspects of society, such as congestion, accessibility, and economic factors. However, I demonstrate that no single framework successfully captures all the identified societal impacts, which are likely to depend on diverse factors such as geographical variations.

The impacts further affect sustainability, where new challenges are likely to emerge. I show that while current tools to govern the transport system are still relevant, a comprehensive approach is needed to ensure that policymakers make well-considered decisions. 

In conclusion, I call for a more balanced view of self-driving vehicles. Introducing this new technology requires careful planning and governance to ensure that self-driving vehicle systems genuinely enhance our quality of life and help build a sustainable future. 

Abstract [sv]

Självkörande fordon har framställts som en viktig pusselbit för att uppnå hållbara och säkra resor, med möjligheter att förbättra trafikflödet, minska utsläppen och öka trafiksäkerheten. Det har dock visat sig att introduktionen av denna nya teknik inte var så enkel som det till en början framställdes, och att effekterna inte nödvändigtvis bara är positiva.

I denna avhandling undersöker jag de samhälleliga effekterna av att införa självkörande fordon, uppdelat i fyra områden: varför forskning sker på området, hur de skulle realiseras, de samhälleliga effekterna av ett införande, samt relationen mellan självkörande fordon och hållbarhet.

Jag visar att motiveringen för att göra forskning på området ofta är oklar och att själva existensen av forskning på området används för att självrättfärdiga mer forskning.

Den mesta forskningen om att realisera självkörande fordon fokuserar på rent tekniska aspekter, såsom bättre algoritmer. Även om många utmaningar kvarstår på det området visar jag även att många andra praktiska problem kvarstår, kopplade till den sociotekniska kopplingen mellan teknik och samhälle. Till exempel saknas lösningar för hur fordonen skulle interagera med fotgängare, och de självkörande fordonen skulle dessutom behöva organiseras praktiskt på något sätt.

Effekterna av självkörande teknik skulle även påverka många delar av samhället såsom framkomlighet, tillgänglighet och ekonomi. Därutöver demonstrerar jag att inget nuvarande ramverk för att förstå samhällseffekter lyckas fånga samtliga aspekter, och att effekterna skulle variera med hänsyn till t ex geografi.

Dessa samhällseffekter får även påverkan på hållbarhet, där nya utmaningar kan uppstå. Jag visar att nuvarande styrmedel för transportsystemet fortfarande är relevanta, men att en helhetssyn krävs för att effektivt hantera utmaningarna. 

Avslutningsvis efterlyser jag en nyanserad bild av självkörande fordon. Att introducera en ny teknik kräver rigorös och framåtsyftande planering och styrning för att säkerställa att självkörande fordon uppnår övergripande hållbarhetsmål och leder till att berika människors liv.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2024. , p. 100
Series
TRITA-ITM-AVL ; 2024:10
Keywords [en]
self-driving vehicles, societal effects
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
Machine Design
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-346477ISBN: 978-91-8040-942-1 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-346477DiVA, id: diva2:1858406
Public defence
2024-06-13, https://kth-se.zoom.us/j/68249380493, F3, Lindstedtsvägen 26, Stockholm, 14:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Vinnova, 2020-05146Region Stockholm, LS 2017-0585Region Stockholm, RS 2020–0353Swedish Transport Administration, TRV 2019/118695Available from: 2024-05-21 Created: 2024-05-16 Last updated: 2024-06-03Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Beyond the hype: A critical look at the motivations driving automated driving systems research
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Beyond the hype: A critical look at the motivations driving automated driving systems research
2024 (English)In: Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, E-ISSN 2590-1982, Vol. 24, article id 101075Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Automated driving systems (ADS) have gained sizable attention over the last decade, promising safer, cheaper, and more accessible transportation. However, the discourse driving this research has not been thoroughly explored, with scant qualitative work detailing specific cases. To address this gap, this paper explores the motivations for the societal need for ADS research for the 500 most cited publications in the field, investigating explicit motivations (e.g., accident reduction), writing style, assumed likelihood of outcomes, and the text's tone. Qualitative and quantitative techniques are used, as well as the tool ChatGPT to investigate the large number of texts. The results show that the most common motivation is the emergence itself (‘ADS are coming, so they need to be studied’), followed by potential benefits such as accident reduction, congestion mitigation, increased comfort and productivity onboard, and environmental concerns. The tone of the publications is primarily neutral or slightly positive but with some deterministic descriptions like ‘ADS will lead to’ rather than more cautious language like ‘can’ or ‘may’. The results offer a glimpse rather than a comprehensive overview of the discourse on ADS within the research community. While the analysis might not capture the nuanced perspectives that readers encounter in publications focused on 'impacts', the reviewed publications remain the most cited works in the field, likely affecting the discourse to some extent.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV, 2024
Keywords
Automated driving, Automated driving systems, Motivation, Review, Self-driving vehicles
National Category
Embedded Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-345241 (URN)10.1016/j.trip.2024.101075 (DOI)001224567500001 ()2-s2.0-85189011272 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20240603

Available from: 2024-04-10 Created: 2024-04-10 Last updated: 2024-08-30Bibliographically approved
2. From technological fixes to societal solutions: A sociotechnical framework for understanding self-driving technology implementation
Open this publication in new window or tab >>From technological fixes to societal solutions: A sociotechnical framework for understanding self-driving technology implementation
2024 (English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Self-driving vehicles have been hailed as a revolutionary force that will benefit society through increased accessibility and reduced accident rates. However, implementing such a new technological system will be complex, requiring immense societal adaptions and changes. In this paper, we analyse the challenges faced in implementing self-driving vehicles based on interviews with onboard operators and stakeholders responsible for the operations of self-driving buses in northwest Stockholm, Sweden. From these interviews, we suggest a framework for understanding which societal changes would be required to implement self-driving vehicles.

We highlight the complexities of self-driving and the sociotechnical perspective needed to understand the challenges of implementing self-driving vehicles, underscoring human drivers' complex and tacit knowledge. Further, we identify a crucial technological gap in the vehicles' understanding of context, suggesting that comprehensive self-driving operation requires a form of general intelligence beyond the current, specialised, driving-only intelligence. The findings presented in this paper pave the way for further research and efforts needed to enable broader adoption of self-driving vehicles and offer insights for policymakers to guide future legislation in self-driving transport. 

In conclusion, several adaptions are required to facilitate self-driving vehicles. However, policymakers are advised to uphold stringent transport requirements, regardless of human or machine drivers, and resist any pressures to unnecessarily relax regulations. Such a cautious approach will ensure the continued prioritisation of safety and efficacy without compromising the human norms and behaviours that are integral and necessary to transport systems. 

Keywords
Self-driving vehicles; Self-driving buses; Implementation; Trial; Sociotechnical systems; Framework
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
Transport Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-346468 (URN)
Funder
Vinnova, 2020-05146
Note

Submitted

QC 20240516

Available from: 2024-05-15 Created: 2024-05-15 Last updated: 2024-05-16Bibliographically approved
3. Will leisure trips be more affected than work trips by autonomous technology?: Modelling self-driving public transport and cars in Stockholm, Sweden
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Will leisure trips be more affected than work trips by autonomous technology?: Modelling self-driving public transport and cars in Stockholm, Sweden
2022 (English)In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 165, p. 1-19Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Self-driving technology may lead to a paradigm shift for the transport industry with shared cars available to every-one. However, this vision has increasingly been challenged as too optimistic and unsubstantiated. In this study we explore societal impacts of using this technology for both cars and public transport and investigate differences depending on geography and trip purpose. Four scenarios were designed through workshops with 130 transport experts, modelled using a conventional four-step model for Stockholm, Sweden and evaluated in terms of changes to mode choice, number of trips and person kilometres.We find larger increases for non-commuting trips, i.e. service and leisure trips, than for commuting trips, questioning the view of the 'productive work trip' as self-driving technology's main impact on society. As these trips are primarily made outside of rush hours, this may lead to a changed transport system. Geographic differences are substantial and heavily dependent on the cost model for car alternatives, even indicating a reduction in car travel in rural areas if private ownership would be replaced by shared cars. Furthermore, walking and cycling levels decreased in all scenarios while enhancing public transport using self-driving technology had a limited impact on ridership.These results show that the impacts of self-driving technology may have varied societal impacts even within a region and may lead to increased car travel, especially off-peak. These conclusions stress the need for policies that are sensitive to both geography and time.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV, 2022
Keywords
Autonomous vehicle, Trip purpose, Mode choice, Travel demand modelling, Large-scale simulation
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-319426 (URN)10.1016/j.tra.2022.08.023 (DOI)000855679600001 ()2-s2.0-85137175737 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20220929

Available from: 2022-09-29 Created: 2022-09-29 Last updated: 2024-05-16Bibliographically approved
4. Frameworks for assessing societal impacts of automated driving technology
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Frameworks for assessing societal impacts of automated driving technology
Show others...
2022 (English)In: Transportation planning and technology (Print), ISSN 0308-1060, E-ISSN 1029-0354, Vol. 45, no 7, p. 545-572Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Numerous studies have studied the impacts of automated driving (AD) technology on e.g. accident rates or CO2 emissions using various frameworks. In this paper we present an overview of previous frameworks used for societal impacts and review their advantages and limitations. Additionally, we introduce the Total Impact Assessment (TIA) framework developed by the Swedish Transport Administration and use this framework to evaluate three scenarios for AD bus services in Stockholm. We conclude that the reviewed frameworks cover different aspects of AD technology, and that e.g. cybersecurity and biodiversity are areas largely neglected. Furthermore, most frameworks assume effects to be homogenous, when there may be large variation in e.g. perceived security. The TIA framework does not manage to include all societal aspects of AD technology, but has great benefits and manages to provide important insights of the societal impacts of AD technology, especially how effects may wary for different actors. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Informa UK Limited, 2022
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-323333 (URN)10.1080/03081060.2022.2134866 (DOI)000871790500001 ()2-s2.0-85141181840 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Transport Administration, TRV 2019/118695
Note

QC 20230130

Available from: 2023-01-26 Created: 2023-01-26 Last updated: 2024-05-16Bibliographically approved
5. Using vignettes to explore policy tools for a self-driving transport future
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Using vignettes to explore policy tools for a self-driving transport future
2023 (English)In: Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, E-ISSN 2590-1982, Vol. 22, article id 100922Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Researchers struggle to create simple yet nuanced diagrams or short abstracts that are easily comprehendible by non-experts. Research articles may be our primary communication method, but they are generally difficult to understand, making them unsuitable for general communication. This paper investigates a rarely used method in transport research – vignettes – to convey research results and elicit implications for public planners. Historically, these vignettes have been designed using qualitative methods, e.g., the Delphi method or by researchers' review of trends. However, this paper uses two vignettes originating from quantitative results from a simulation model paper (Almlöf et al., 2022), investigating the impacts of self-driving technology. Rewriting the results into two short stories – vignettes – these stories then served as the starting point for semi-structured interviews and a workshop with six public officials in Stockholm, Sweden. The vignettes were used to understand what these results would mean to the participants and how they would combat potential problems connected to sustainability, given the vignettes. Finally, the interviews and the workshop were qualitatively analysed, and policy tools were identified that can steer the transport system towards societal goals. The vignettes were a powerful tool to help the participants envision a future with self-driving transport options and promote critical thinking regarding how each participant would be affected, given such a future. As such, vignettes should be further explored to help researchers investigate abstract subjects which participants may have difficulties understanding.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV, 2023
Keywords
Automated driving, Mixed methods, Self-driving vehicles, Urban planning, Vignettes
National Category
Other Social Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-338351 (URN)10.1016/j.trip.2023.100922 (DOI)001086625800001 ()2-s2.0-85173039189 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20231020

Available from: 2023-10-20 Created: 2023-10-20 Last updated: 2024-08-30Bibliographically approved

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