Forecasting Short-Term Returns on Tennis Betting Exchange Markets Using Deep Learning
2024 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE credits
Student thesis
Abstract [en]
In this work, we propose a regressional framework, built on the work ”Deep Order Flow Imbalance: Extracting Alpha at Multiple Horizons from the Limit Order Book” by Kolm, et al. (2023), for predicting short term returns of odds on binary betting exchange markets. Using the framework, we apply five different deep learning models that leverage order book data from tennis betting exchanges during the calendar month of July 2023 with the purpose of examining the predictive capabilities of deep learning models in this setting. We train each model on either raw limit order book states or order flow. The models predict the returns of the best available odds returns on five different short term time horizons on the four order book sides, back and lay for each of the two players in a given tennis match. Applying windowing, for each vector prediction we use the 100 latest market messages consisting of 81 features (odds and volumes per the ten first levels in the order book and time delta between market messages) in the case of the raw limit order book state and 41 features (order book flow per the ten first levels in the order book and time delta between market messages) in the case of the order book flow. All code is written in Python and run on Google Colab, leveraging cloud computing, off-the-shelf models and popular libraries, TensorFlow and Keras, for data processing and pipelining, model implementation, training and testing. The models are evaluated relative to a benchmark in the form of a naive predictor based on the average odds returns on the training set. The models do not converge towards an optimal parameter composition duringtraining, indicating low predictive capabilities of the input data. Despite this, we generally find all models to outperform the benchmark on the lay order book sides and while some perform better than others, we see similar relative performance distributions within each model across horizon-order book side combinations. To enhance discussion and suggest the direction of future research we examine relationships between key game characteristics such asthe variation of odds returns and the accuracy of predictions on a given market.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024.
Series
TRITA-SCI-GRU ; 2024:243
Keywords [en]
Sports betting, Betting exchange markets, Limit order book data, Order flow, Artificial neural networks, Deep learning
National Category
Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-348519OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-348519DiVA, id: diva2:1876827
Subject / course
Mathematical Statistics
Educational program
Master of Science in Engineering - Engineering Mathematics
Supervisors
Examiners
2024-06-252024-06-252024-06-25Bibliographically approved