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Toward probabilistic ground models for time and cost estimation of tunnel projects
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Soil and Rock Mechanics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5372-7519
Emprise Concepts LLC.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0506-062X
Technical University of Munich.
2024 (English)In: Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Geotechnical and Geophysical Site Characterization / [ed] Arroyo, M. & Gens, A., Barcelona: International Center for Numerical Methods in Engineering (CIMNE), 2024, p. 1801-1806Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The construction time and cost of a rock tunnel project are highly dependent on the rock mass quality and encountered ground behaviour. In most rock tunnel projects, the knowledge about the ground conditions along the tunnel is limited, making it difficult to predict accurately the construction time and cost. The KTH model takes a probabilistic approach to address this problem; however, it does not account for the spatial variability of the ground conditions. This paper investigates an alternative probabilistic ground model to be used within the KTH model that enables accounting for the spatial variability through Markov random field theory. The new ground model employs a parametric approach to describe the properties of the Markov field, hence, enabling the simulation of the ground conditions with limited data, but does not consider the epistemic uncertainty in the model parameters. This will be the addressed in future research.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Barcelona: International Center for Numerical Methods in Engineering (CIMNE), 2024. p. 1801-1806
Keywords [en]
tunnel, construction time, ground model, spatial uncertainty, Markov chain random field
National Category
Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
Research subject
Civil and Architectural Engineering, Soil and Rock Mechanics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-348520DOI: 10.23967/isc.2024.035OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-348520DiVA, id: diva2:1876855
Conference
7th International Conference on Geotechnical and Geophysical Site Characterization (ISC'7), Barcelona, 18 - 21 June 2024
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2018-01017
Note

QC 20240625

Available from: 2024-06-25 Created: 2024-06-25 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved

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fulltext(1101 kB)118 downloads
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Citation style
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