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Forecasting Solar Energy Production in Stockholm Using Tree-based Machine Learning Algorithms
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI).
2024 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Solar panels have become cheaper and more efficient in recent years, leading to an upward trend in the number of photovoltaic systems, both private and grid connected. Therefore, accurate predictions of solar power production output have become increasingly important. This paper investigates how tree-based machine learning algorithms can be used to forecast solar energy production output in the geographical setting of Stockholm. An experimental feature selection proved beneficial for Gradient Boosting Regression Trees. Of the algorithms investigated Gradient Boosting Regression Trees performed best for hourly and daily forecasts. This study suggests that snow depth could be used as a parameter to improve performance. The temperature variable did not improve performance.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024.
Series
TRITA-SCI-GRU ; 2024:254
National Category
Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-348658OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-348658DiVA, id: diva2:1877838
Subject / course
Mathematics
Educational program
Master of Science in Engineering - Engineering Mathematics
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2024-06-26 Created: 2024-06-26 Last updated: 2024-06-26Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf