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Mondrian Conformal Predictive Distributions
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Computer Science, Software and Computer systems, SCS.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8382-0300
Dept. of Computing, Jönköping University, Sweden.
Dept. of Computing, Jönköping University, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0274-9026
2021 (English)In: Proceedings of the 10th Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction and Applications, COPA 2021, ML Research Press , 2021, p. 24-38Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The distributions output by a standard (non-normalized) conformal predictive system all have the same shape but differ in location, while a normalized conformal predictive system outputs distributions that differ also in shape, through rescaling. An approach to further increasing the flexibility of the framework is proposed, called Mondrian conformal predictive distributions, which are (standard or normalized) conformal predictive distributions formed from multiple Mondrian categories. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated with an application to regression forests. By forming categories through binning of the predictions, it is shown that for this model class, the use of Mondrian conformal predictive distributions significantly outperforms the use of both standard and normalized conformal predictive distributions with respect to the continuous-ranked probability score. It is further shown that the use of Mondrian conformal predictive distributions results in as tight prediction intervals as produced by normalized conformal regressors, while improving upon the point predictions of the underlying regression forest.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ML Research Press , 2021. p. 24-38
Keywords [en]
Conformal predictive distributions, Conformal predictive systems, Continuous ranked probability score, Mondrian conformal predictive distributions
National Category
Information Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-350422Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85126614693OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-350422DiVA, id: diva2:1883976
Conference
10th Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction and Applications, COPA 2021, Virtual, Online, NA, Sep 8 2021 - Sep 10 2021
Note

QC 20240712

Available from: 2024-07-12 Created: 2024-07-12 Last updated: 2024-07-12Bibliographically approved

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Boström, Henrik

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
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  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf