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Comparing net zero pathways across the Atlantic A model inter-comparison exercise between the Energy Modeling Forum 37 and the European Climate and Energy Modeling Forum
RFF-CMCC: European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE); Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Italy, CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change; Banco de Mexico, Mexico.
Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Italy, CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change.
Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany.
Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, the Netherlands; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Netherlands.
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2024 (English)In: Energy and Climate Change, E-ISSN 2666-2787, Vol. 5, article id 100144Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Europe and North America account for 32 % of current carbon emissions. Due to distinct legacy systems, energy infrastructure, socioeconomic development, and energy resource endowment, both regions have different policy and technological pathways to reach net zero by the mid-century. Against this background, our paper examines the results from the net zero emission scenarios for Europe and North America that emerged from the collaboration of the European and American Energy Modeling Forums. In our analysis, we perform an inter-comparison of various integrated assessments and bottom-up energy system models. A clear qualitative consensus emerges on five main points. First, Europe and the United States reach net zero targets with electrification, demand-side reductions, and carbon capture and sequestration technologies. Second, the use of carbon capture and sequestration is more predominant in the United States due to a steeper decarbonization schedule. Third, the buildings sector is the easiest to electrify in both regions. Fourth, the industrial sector is the hardest to electrify in the United States and transportation in Europe. Fifth, in both regions, the transition in the energy mix is driven by the substitution of coal and natural gas with solar and wind, but to a different extent.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2024. Vol. 5, article id 100144
Keywords [en]
100 % renewables, Carbon dioxide removal (CDR), Climate change mitigation, Electrification, Energy Modeling Forum, Energy transition pathways, Europe, European Climate & Energy Modeling Forum, Net zero, Renewable energy system models, United States
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-350950DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100144ISI: 001278521900001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85198727963OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-350950DiVA, id: diva2:1885625
Note

QC 20240725

Available from: 2024-07-24 Created: 2024-07-24 Last updated: 2024-08-27Bibliographically approved

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Henke, HaukeUsher, William

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