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Which US macroeconomic factors drive the S&P 500
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Probability, Mathematical Physics and Statistics.
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Probability, Mathematical Physics and Statistics.
2024 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Vilka makroekonomiska faktorer driver S&P 500 (Swedish)
Abstract [en]

It is no secret that the entire macroeconomic environment affects the underlying growth and sentiment of the stock market. However, which macroeconomic factors that does affect the stock market, and to which degree, is far from being labeled as a consensus. Therefore, this report has analyzed if, and to which degree, certain macroeconomic factors affect the S&P 500, a diverse equity index for the US stock market. The analysis was carried out through a multiple linear regression analysis.The result derived from the final model was that the US Real GDP, the 10-year US bond yield, and the unemployment rate were significant in explaining the S&P 500. However, the high level of autocorrelation leads to the determination that the outcome remains inconclusive, failing to either refute or reinforce the association between the mentioned macroeconomic factors and the S&P 500. Despite the conclusion being inconclusive, the logical connection between said factors and S&P 500 remains.

Abstract [sv]

Tillväxten och förtroendet för aktiemarknaden påverkas av det makroekonomiska-klimatet, men vilka specifika makroekonomiska faktorer påverkar aktiemarknaden, och i vilken utsträckning? Denna rapport syftar till att undersöka om och i vilken grad ett antal makroekonomiska faktorer påverkar S&P 500. Analysen har utförts med hjälp av en multipel linjär regressionsanalys. Resultatet av den slutgiltiga modellen är att USA:s reala BNP, den 10-åriga US Bond yielden och arbetslösheten är signifikanta för att modellera S&P 500. Den höga autokorrelation medför dock att resultaten är ofullständiga. Således varken förkastar eller stärker resultatet sambandet mellan de makroekonomiska faktorerna och S&P 500. Trots att slutsatsen inte är entydig kvarstår det logiska sambandet mellan dessa faktorer och S&P 500.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024.
Series
TRITA-SCI-GRU ; 2024:085
Keywords [en]
Applied Mathematics, Regression Analysis, Statistics, Economics, S&P 500
Keywords [sv]
Tillämpad matematik, statistik, regression, ekonomi, S&P 500
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-349709OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-349709DiVA, id: diva2:1894647
Subject / course
Applied Mathematics and Industrial Economics
Educational program
Master of Science in Engineering - Industrial Engineering and Management
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2024-11-29 Created: 2024-09-03 Last updated: 2024-11-29Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
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