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Exploring Traded Volatility In The Swap Market To Explain Disparities Between Liquidity Risk Premiums
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Probability, Mathematical Physics and Statistics.
2024 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Utforskning Av Handlad Volatilitet I Swapmarknaden För Att Förklara Diskrepanser Mellan Likviditetsriskpremier (Swedish)
Abstract [en]

This thesis studies the liquidity risk premiums that investors should demand on municipal bonds, that are less liquid than government bonds. First, a simple regression study is performed, showing a correlation between the interest rate spread between the two types of bonds, and the forward-looking volatility in the swap market. This implies that investors should demand an increased premium in times of higher uncertainty. The liquidity risk premium is analyzed further in the main part of the thesis, particularly in the scenario where investors are unable to sell a municipal bond on the market. Here, the liquidity risk premium is modeled through the one-factor stochastic short-rate model known as the Vasicek Model. The modeled spread, compared to the actual spread between the two types of bonds, is larger, implying that investors should demand a higher premium on the less liquid municipal bond than is actually demanded on the market.

Abstract [sv]

Denna uppsats studerar de likviditetsriskpremier som investerare bör efterfråga på kommun-obligationer, vilka är mindre likvida än statsobligationer. Först genomförs en enkel regressionsanalys, vilken visar att det föreligger en korrelation mellan räntedifferensen mellan de två typerna av obligationerna, och den framåtblickande volatiliteten i swap-marknaden. Detta implicerar att investerare bör efterfråga en högre premie i tider av högre osäkerhet. Likviditetsriskpremierna analyseras vidare i huvuddelen av uppsatsen, särskilt i scenariot där investerare inte kan sälja kommun-obligationen på marknaden. Här modelleras likviditetsriskpremien genom Vasicek-modellen, vilket är en en-faktor stokastisk räntemodell. Den modellerade räntedifferensen är större, jämfört med den faktiska räntedifferensen, vilket implicerar att investerare bör efterfråga en högre premie på den mindre likvida kommun-obligationen än vad som faktiskt efterfrågas på marknaden.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024.
Series
TRITA-SCI-GRU ; 2024:099
Keywords [en]
Bonds, swap agreements, swaptions, swap market, interest rate disparities, forward-looking volatility, yield curve construction, repurchase agreements, liquidity risk premiums, short-rate models, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, Vasicek model, least-squares parameter estimation, Dual Annealing algorithm
Keywords [sv]
Obligationer, swapavtal, swaptioner, swapmarknad, räntedifferens, framåtblickande volatilitet, konstruktion av räntekurvor, återköpsavtal, likviditetsriskpremier, korträntemodeller, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processen, Vasicek-modellen, minstakvadratskattning av parametrar, Dual Annealing-algoritmen
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-352520OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-352520DiVA, id: diva2:1894670
External cooperation
Nordea Asset Management
Subject / course
Applied Mathematics and Industrial Economics
Educational program
Master of Science in Engineering - Industrial Engineering and Management
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2024-09-03 Created: 2024-09-03

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Citation style
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