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Impact of Population Shocks on Housing Market Dynamics in Swedish Municipalities 1998-2022
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Real Estate and Construction Management, Real Estate Economics and Finance.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9944-0510
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This study explores the causal relationship between population shocks and housing prices in Swedish municipalities. Using a spatial difference-in-differences (DiD) methodology, we analyse data from 290 municipalities over 24 years (1998--2022) to identify the impact of unexpected demographic changes on housing market dynamics. Our approach compares municipalities experiencing significant negative population shifts (treatment group) with those with stable population trends (control group), utilising cumulative summation (CUSUM) tests to identify shocks. The findings indicate that population shocks significantly affect housing prices, with unexpected population declines leading to a 5–10% decrease over 1–6 years after the shock. The impact is more pronounced in smaller municipalities than in larger municipalities with a less elastic housing supply. These results emphasise the critical role of demographic changes in shaping housing markets.

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Economics and Business
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URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-354179OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-354179DiVA, id: diva2:1902500
Available from: 2024-10-01 Created: 2024-10-01 Last updated: 2024-10-01

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fulltext(517 kB)392 downloads
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Wilhelmsson, Mats

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
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  • de-DE
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  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
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  • asciidoc
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