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The impact of hydroclimate-driven periodic runoff on hydropower production and management
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Resources, Energy and Infrastructure.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8200-9137
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Resources, Energy and Infrastructure.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2726-6821
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7575-8989
2024 (English)In: Scientific Reports, E-ISSN 2045-2322, Vol. 14, no 1, article id 25967Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study evaluates the impact of hydroclimate-driven periodic runoff on hydropower operations and production, with a focus on how the forecasted biennial periodicity of runoff time series could affect the efficiency of hydropower generation. Hydrologic stochastic processes are utilized to forecast long-term runoff, and seven hydroclimate scenarios are developed to be input into a production management model, allowing for an analysis of how periodic hydroclimate variations influence hydropower management and output. The results reveal that the biennial alternation between wet and dry years is a key factor affecting hydropower operations in the Dalälven River Basin. Notable differences between wet- and dry-year scenarios were observed in terms of power efficiency, production output, and forecasting accuracy. Operating hydropower systems based on dry-year runoff forecasts in wet years results in a 1.63% decrease in production efficiency and a reduction of 9,104 MWh in power generation. Conversely, applying wet-year forecasts in dry years slightly boosts production efficiency by 0.31% and increases power generation by 7,832 MWh. Scenarios that adhere to biennial periodicity offer the highest forecasting accuracy, particularly when applying dry-year forecasts in dry years in winter and spring, which produce the most precise predictions. In contrast, using dry-year forecasts in wet years results in the lowest forecasting accuracy.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature , 2024. Vol. 14, no 1, article id 25967
Keywords [en]
Biennial periodicity, Dry-year, Optimisation of hydropower, Scenarios, Stochastic forecasting, Wet-year
National Category
Water Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-356316DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-76461-3ISI: 001345876000108PubMedID: 39472607Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85208162783OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-356316DiVA, id: diva2:1912900
Note

QC 20241203

Available from: 2024-11-13 Created: 2024-11-13 Last updated: 2024-12-03Bibliographically approved

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Hao, ShuangWörman, AndersBrandimarte, Luigia

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